A Sense of Doubt blog post #3260 - GO LIONS!! Beat Tampa Bay! Game today: Ford Field: Divisional Playoffs
This is THAT ONE THING for today, Sunday, January 21, 2024.
The Detroit Lions host their first divisional round appearance since 1991.
I am worried about jinxing them as I tend to do that when I crow for a win as if it's a sure thing.
(4) Buccaneers at (3) Lions
Sunday, 3 p.m. ET | NBC | Spread: DET -6.5 (48.5)
What to watch for: Fresh off winning their first playoff game in 32 years, the Lions will host their first NFC divisional round appearance since the 1991 playoffs. These teams will clash for the second time this season after Detroit won the regular-season matchup 20-6 at Tampa Bay. Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield and Lions quarterback Jared Goff have both revitalized their careers in new settings as former No. 1 overall picks and will look to carry their respective teams with their strong play. -- Eric Woodyard
Bold prediction: The Bucs will hold the Lions under 20 points ... and win. Tampa Bay will once again be the underdog, Detroit's going to be as hostile a setting as it gets and coach Todd Bowles hasn't beaten Goff since 2019, when Goff was with the Rams and Bowles was the Bucs' defensive coordinator. But the defense found its footing last week in one of Bowles' best-called games, and Mayfield's physically doing a lot better with those rib and ankle injuries. -- Jenna Laine
Stat to know: The Buccaneers' defense has blitzed on 41% of dropbacks by opposing quarterbacks, the third-highest rate in the NFL. They could look to dial that up even more against Goff, who has seven turnovers when blitzed this season, tied for second most in the NFL.
Matchup X factor: Lions edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson. He is on a three-game multisack streak and is coming off a 33% pass rush win rate game in the wild-card round (more than double his regular-season rate). The Lions' pass defense is their weakness, but if Hutchinson gets going, the Lions could pull away fast. -- Walder
Game-plan key: Will we see Lions receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown and Buccaneers corner Carlton Davis III in one-on-one man coverage matchups? St. Brown had 124 yards against Tampa Bay in Week 6, so the Bucs need a plan here -- potentially with Davis in coverage and safety help spinning down late. Read more at ESPN+. -- Bowen
Injuries: Buccaneers | Lions
Officiating note: Referee Bill Vinovich's regular-season crew is usually one of the stingiest in the NFL. In 2023, however, it averaged 13.4 flags per game, tied for the seventh fewest in the NFL. When the Lions and Bucs met in the regular season, the teams combined for 10 flags -- five apiece. -- Seifert
Betting nugget: Both teams are 12-6 ATS, which is tied for the second-best mark behind the Raiders (12-5 ATS). Unders are 12-6 in Buccaneers games, while overs are 11-7 in Lions games.
Moody's pick: Lions 28, Buccaneers 21
Walder's pick: Lions 34, Buccaneers 17
FPI prediction: DET, 62.5% (by an average of 4.5 points)
Matchup must-reads: Mayfield responds to Lions DB's barb ... Goff leads Lions in revenge win over Rams ... Mayfield leads underdog Bucs to surprising playoff win ... Oral history of the Lions' last playoff win
https://www.espn.com/sports-betting/story/_/id/39344678/lions-drawing-bets-favorite-vs-bucs-super-bowl-run
Lions drawing bets as favorite vs. Bucs, for Super Bowl run
The Detroit Lions have had a miserable history in the playoffs. But these aren't your dad's Lions, and it's showing in the betting markets.
According to ESPN Stats & Information, since Nevada legalized sports betting in 1949, Detroit's consensus 6.5-point favorite status for Sunday's game against Tampa Bay is its largest ever in the playoffs. It surpasses the Lions as a 4-point favorite against the Dallas Cowboys in the 1970 divisional round, a game Detroit would lose 5-0.
Although their 6.5-point favorite role trails Baltimore and San Francisco each giving 9.5 points in their divisional round matchups, it's been a long time coming for the Lions.
"They haven't been favorites in the playoffs for sure, but they haven't been in the playoffs that much," DraftKings director of race and sports operations Johnny Avello told ESPN. "The team has just not had many opportunities."
This is the first time in franchise history that the Lions have hosted two playoff games in a single postseason, and should they win, it will mark the first time since 1957 that they won multiple playoff games. They are one of four NFL franchises to never appear in a Super Bowl, along with fellow divisional round contender Houston, eliminated Cleveland and Jacksonville, which missed the postseason after a 1-5 finish.
Like the Browns in the wild-card round, the Lions are public betting darlings as fans root for the team to finally find success in January.
At BetMGM, Lions -6.5 has attracted 63% of the bets and 71% of the handle, with the moneyline (-275) bringing in 47% of the bets and 73% of the handle. At PointsBet, Detroit is taking 81% of the moneyline handle, which the sportsbook notes is by far the most of any team this weekend. The action pushed the line a half-point from the consensus opener of -6.
The state of Michigan is driving betting action on the Lions across the country. Caesars reports that Detroit is the most uneven moneyline and spread percentage-wise by handle and bets -- both in Michigan and nationwide.
At ESPN BET in Michigan, Lions -6.5 is attracting 73.36% of the bets compared to 49.85% everywhere else; the moneyline has seen 84.73% of the bets in Michigan compared to 66.74% in all the other states.
Michigan bettors believe the Lions can go all the way and are putting their money behind it in force. At DraftKings in Michigan, since Sunday, Detroit has been the most-bet team to win the Super Bowl by five times the handle and four times the bets of any other team; the Lions are the most-bet team to win the NFC by 10 times the handle and three times the bets.
It all adds up to huge liability on the Lions for the sportsbooks.
"The Lions drive a lot of interest from bettors in Michigan," said BetMGM trading manager Christian Cipollini. "Detroit playing more games is good for the sportsbook, but eventually we need the Lions to lose."
Caesars assistant director of trading Adam Pullen said that while the Lions winning the Super Bowl would represent a "small winner" for the book, their winning the conference would be a "medium liability." The same goes for PointsBet, which reports that Detroit is its biggest NFC champion liability.
One aspect influencing the public's confidence and the books' deference to the Lions is the enormous coaching presence from the sideline. According to ESPN Stats & Information, Detroit is 35-17 against the spread in three seasons under Dan Campbell, the best record in the NFL in that span. Campbell is 39-25 ATS in his career -- including 12 games as the Miami Dolphins interim coach in 2015 -- which is the best mark of any coach since the 1970 merger with at least three seasons.
"They operate as a collective, not as individuals, and I think it suits them and the coach," Pullen said. "The coach is the biggest star of the team. ... That works, I think, to their benefit."
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- Bloggery committed by chris tower - 2401.21 - 10:10
- Days ago = 3125 days ago
- New note - On 1807.06, I ceased daily transmission of my Hey Mom feature after three years of daily conversations. I plan to continue Hey Mom posts at least twice per week but will continue to post the days since ("Days Ago") count on my blog each day. The blog entry numbering in the title has changed to reflect total Sense of Doubt posts since I began the blog on 0705.04, which include Hey Mom posts, Daily Bowie posts, and Sense of Doubt posts. Hey Mom posts will still be numbered sequentially. New Hey Mom posts will use the same format as all the other Hey Mom posts; all other posts will feature this format seen here.
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