A Sense of Doubt blog post #2614 - Cade Cunningham for NBA 2022 Rookie of the Year
The vote for NBA Rookie of the Year is not yet complete.
Here's my vote.
OBV.
Thanks for tuning in.
ENJOY.
https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/insider/story/_/id/33699773/nba-rookie-power-rankings-our-10-best-first-year-players
With the NBA regular season coming to a close, it's time to unveil our fourth and final version of Rookie Power Rankings, which features a new first-year star at No. 1. Treat this as a Rookie of the Year ballot as this list is formulated based on the type of rookie season each player had, not his long-term potential or outlook.
While Caesars Sportsbook has Cleveland's Evan Mobley at -200, Toronto's Scottie Barnes at +160 and Detroit's Cade Cunningham at +800, this is as close a ROY race as I can remember with three deserving candidates at the top, each bringing something different to the table.
The 2021 draft class has lived up to the hype and then some with a handful of stars, role players and intriguing long-term prospects.
Which rookie has leapfrogged the rest of the pack to land at the top?
1. Cade Cunningham | Detroit Pistons
Stats: 17.4 PPG, 5.6 APG, 5.5 RPG
Although Cleveland's Evan Mobley is the betting favorite to take home the award after a tremendous season, Cunningham would be my vote given his sensational second half of the season while playing a role that no other rookie in this class has the ability to shoulder with the same level of success. Not only has Cunningham earned the respect of his peers with his unshakable confidence, methodical pace and smooth game, he has been the driving force in the newfound optimism surrounding a Pistons organization that hasn't won a playoff game since 2007-08 while playing the most coveted role in the NBA as a 6-foot-8 shot creator.
With Detroit at 23-58, Cunningham hasn't experienced the team success of Barnes or Mobley. He's not going to win any arguments with his advanced stats. But 27 different players have suited up for the Pistons this season. Detroit has zero All-Stars, with Cunningham the closest thing to one. Jerami Grant was limited to 47 games this season. The Pistons aren't exactly flush with floor-spacers for Cunningham (28th in 3-point shooting). So when you consider the fact that Cunningham is already the best player on his team at 20 years old along with the different ways he was able to generate offense for himself and his teammates through 64 games, I'd give him the ever-so-slight edge for ROY.
"The other guys in my class are big time so I've always felt like we've all had our own things that make us special but for me, I just feel like the fact that I can do so many different things," Cunningham said of what makes him the Rookie of the Year. "I feel like playmaking for others and then being able to go and score on your own is something that every team wants. ... I feel like I compete on defense. I'm still trying to get my group together so we can be in playoff contention soon. There's been a lot of things about my game that I've shown and just who I am as a person that would make me Rookie of the Year."
In 20 games after the All-Star break, Cunningham averaged 21.1 points, 6.5 assists and 5.7 rebounds with 53% true shooting. The list of players averaging at least 21-5-5 on over 53% true shooting features mostly All-Stars and MVPs: Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Luka Doncic, Ja Morant, Jimmy Butler, James Harden, Steph Curry, Pascal Siakam and Brandon Ingram. Not only did Cunningham put up traditional counting stats with by far the highest usage rate among rookies (27.7), but Detroit went 8-12 with the No. 1 pick in the lineup post-All-Star break. For the entire season, the Pistons are 20-44 with Cunningham in the lineup and 3-14 without him.
Cunningham's second half has featured everything from a 34-point outburst in a narrow loss to Kevin Durant's Nets to 27 points and six assists in a win over James Harden, Joel Embiid and the Philadelphia 76ers to 25-9-7 against Luka Doncic's Mavs to 22-5-12 and a game-sealing block in a win over former high school teammate Scottie Barnes and the Toronto Raptors.
The ROY award is clearly based on the full season, and his post-All-Star break run is less than a fourth of 82 games. Despite the slow start, he still leads all rookies in scoring while only 37% of his total made baskets were assisted, one of the lowest rates in the NBA. For reference, 48% of Barnes' buckets were assisted, while 67% of Mobley's were created by his teammates (according to CleaningTheGlass.com), which emphasizes the difference in role. He also finished second in assists (5.6 per game), third in made 3s and fifth in rebounds (5.5). He's one of only two rookie starters with a steal and block percentage over 1.8%, joining Herbert Jones.
Although his off-ball activity still has peaks and valleys, Cunningham has a positive defensive real plus-minus (1.71), which you don't always see for a rookie on a bad team. Anthony Edwards and LaMelo Ball were both negative last season, with Ball ranking 81st among point guards and Edwards 51st among small forwards. He may not be a true "sit and slide" lockdown defender with elite lateral quicks, but Cunningham has quick hands, long arms, good instincts and a solid compete level. During our recent film session, Cunningham lit up when he talked through his game-sealing block against the Raptors, likening it to his two-handed rejection against Kansas that ultimately led to a win. After seeing two possessions of him stopping Mobley one-on-one, Cunningham, who recorded a 19-10-10 triple-double against Cleveland, made it clear he knew what was at stake.
"Come on now, you know I'm aware of that," Cunningham said. "I remember telling the squad, 'No help.' I like being a post defender anyways. I kind of take pride in that. I know it's the Rookie of the Year race going on. Me and him [Mobley], we see each other, no help. If he scores it, then I gotta shake his hand. If not, I win that possession. I just wanted to see what I had ... I love Evan's game. I love his game but you know I've gotta hold my own too."
After initially struggling a bit to adjust to the NBA's length and athleticism, Cunningham eventually showed how well-rounded he is. While still far too streaky, he lifted his 3-point percentage to 31.4% after going 1-for-21 to start the season, looking comfortable both on and off the ball. He proved he can score out of the post against smaller guards. He showed he can go get his own shot on the perimeter, hesitating into pull-ups or breaking down his defender with an excellent blend of wiggle, change of pace and strength, regularly going through powerful opponents such as Andre Drummond or OG Anunoby and around or over long-armed defenders such as Durant, Matisse Thybulle, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Mitchell Robinson. Of the 49 players to use over 250 isolation possessions this season, Cunningham ranked 16th in points per chance, ahead of noted creators such as Devin Booker, Jaylen Brown and Khris Middleton. The only other rookie to use that many isolations was Barnes, who ranked 45th.
"I don't want anyone feeling like they're getting the best of me when they're guarding me," Cunningham said of creating against even the NBA's best defenders. "I just try to trust my moves, trust that my moves will get me open. I feel good on anyone for real. I feel like if I've got the ball in my hands, I'm straight."
Cunningham also used more pick-and-rolls than any other rookie, despite playing only 63 games, at 1,857 (14th-most in the NBA), with second-place Josh Giddey over 400 reps behind him. Cunningham's ability to fire one-handed passes to the weakside corner or toss it up to Marvin Bagley III has made him effective against drop coverages. He's incredibly patient, often giving Isaiah Stewart time to seal his man and clear the runway for Cunningham to navigate toward the rim. He's a reliable midrange shooter in the pocket with the length to finish from different angles with either hand. While incredibly inefficient in ball screens and far too turnover prone, a lot of that is a product of Detroit's lack of shooting, which could receive a major boost this offseason from either Chet Holmgren, Jabari Smith or Paolo Banchero.
Add in the pick-and-roll feel, poise, skill level, positional size, defensive versatility, late-game comfort and the fact that he's highly regarded as a leader, Cunningham is about as complete a prospect as you'll find at this age. Although it took him some time to get going and there is a clear case for both Mobley and Barnes, Cunningham showed why he was the No. 1 pick with a Rookie of the Year-caliber campaign that has NBA stars and execs alike buzzing about his future.
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- Bloggery committed by chris tower - 2204.15 - 10:10
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