A Sense of Doubt blog post #3346 - Who Will Start WWIII?

A Sense of Doubt blog post #3346 - Who Will Start WWIII?

Just saw the A24 movie Civil War, and I will have a post about it tomorrow.

Today, this prophetic cover (above) and a couple of articles.

The comic is prognosticating 1986 because it was published in 1970 - https://www.comics.org/issue/23701/

I tend to agree with the TAMU article. WWIII is unlikely to happen in our modern world at least in ways similar to the previous two world wars.

And yet, some fear about the conflicts in our world is perfectly reasonable.

ALSO, I did like the follow up to Dave's post from Twitter that AFRICA IS NOT A COUNTRY!

I have run into this many times as a teacher in which a student refers to Africa in a way that sounds like it's a country and sounds like they do not know otherwise.

I'd be willing to bet that few of my students could even name FIVE countries in Africa. I used to test theories like that, but it's shaming to students for no good reason. However, I am curious.

I feel badly that I used to be able to almost earn a perfect score labeling the current map of Africa. Can't do that anymore.

Thanks for tuning in.

Source:

Who will start World War III? pic.twitter.com/Ur0zJMZgT3

— Dave's Comic Heroes Blog (@DavesComicHero) April 13, 2024

Reaction:

I’ve always hated the bad geography as if Africa was a country. Why not name a country or nation in Africa? The continent is not a catch-all. Other than that, this cover is apropos to our current, times & geopolitical state of affairs. My hope is that today doesn’t not trigger it pic.twitter.com/rLOU1Y5FM2

— Wednesday Comix: Still Here (Until I’m Not) (@WednesdayComix) April 14, 2024

https://today.tamu.edu/2024/02/22/are-we-heading-for-world-war-iii-texas-am-experts-say-its-unlikely/

Are We Heading For World War III? Texas A&M Experts Say It’s Unlikely

While recent wars have sparked speculation about an ensuing global conflict, military scholars say comparisons to past world wars are largely overblown.

By Luke Henkhaus, Texas A&M University Division of Marketing and CommunicationsFEBRUARY 22, 2024

Rising geopolitical tensions, the ongoing wars in Ukraine and Gaza, and a number of armed skirmishes elsewhere have put much of the international community on edge in recent months, fueling speculation that the world may be heading for a broader global conflict.

In January, the outgoing head of the British army, Gen. Patrick Sanders, raised eyebrows when he said U.K. citizens should be prepared to form a “citizen army” in the event of war between NATO members and Russia, evoking similar policies of conscription used in World War I and World War II. A number of Western media outlets have drawn direct comparisons between the current geopolitical situation and the events that preceded those wars, highlighting the role of competing alliances, economic tensions and disputes over borders and territory.

While Downing Street was quick to walk back Sanders’ statements — a spokesperson for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak called them “not helpful” — concerns about a new global war originating from conflicts in Europe and the Middle East have continued to circulate. An analysis from Bloomberg shows that references to World War III in news stories recently hit a 16-month high.

So, is the world really veering toward another world war? Texas A&M Today asked Dr. Jasen Castillo and Dr. John Schuessler, associate professors of international affairs at Texas A&M University’s Bush School of Government and Public Service. Castillo and Schuessler are co-directors of the Bush School’s Albritton Center for Grand Strategy.

What Makes A War A ‘World War’?

Though it’s only been used twice, the specific term “world war” applies to armed conflicts between major world powers spanning multiple regions of the globe, Schuessler said. Therefore, our notions of what a world war might look like are largely dependent on who the “great powers” of our era are, their relative military capabilities, and where they are located geographically.

During the height of the Cold War, for instance, Americans had a clear picture of what a “World War III” would entail — a deadly contest between East and West pitting the United States and its allies against a well-armed Soviet Union. “The main front would have been in Europe,” Schuessler said.

The picture we see today is very different, Castillo said, as the post-Soviet Russian state and other modern adversaries of the U.S. don’t pose nearly the same threat as the USSR did.

“The Russian military today is a poor imitation of the Red Army,” Castillo said.

That leaves only China, Schuessler and Castillo said. As the one nation competing with the U.S. for global economic and military supremacy, China — not Russia — would likely be America’s primary opponent in a 21st century world war.

“Today, it is hard to envision a world war that does not pit the United States against China. Whether Russia would align with China in such a war is an open question,” Schuessler said. “Until the U.S. is dragged into a war against China and that war is somehow joined with the ones in Europe and the Middle East, we are not talking about a world war.”

Ultimately, Castillo said, we’re not likely to see such a conflict any time soon. While China may be the closest thing the U.S. has to a Soviet-level rival, it remains to be seen whether the country will actually rise to such heights.

“Down the road, China and the U.S. might engage in a world war,” Castillo said. “But right now, China is not a military peer of the United States, like the Soviet Union was. Further, it’s not clear that China’s economy will continue to develop in a way that would make it a military peer like the Soviet Union.”

If This Isn’t A World War In The Making, Then What Is It?

Even if global war isn’t on the horizon, recent chaos on the world stage is certainly a cause for concern, Schuessler said.

“Americans are not wrong to worry about the United States getting dragged into wars where it is supporting one side against another,” he said. “That said, the U.S. has managed to stay out of the wars in Europe and the Middle East thus far.”

Ultimately, Castillo said, ongoing regional conflicts may be a sign that America’s grip over the rest of the world is starting to slip somewhat. Even if they can’t challenge the U.S. directly, powers like Russia are becoming more willing and able to assert their own geopolitical interests, making it harder for the U.S. to maintain its post-Cold War role as “global sheriff,” he said.

“An era where the U.S. was the only great power was never going to last,” Castillo said. “Now, we live in an era where our adversaries can push back against the liberal international order.”

This marks a return to an older state of global affairs, he said — one in which multiple great powers compete for position on the world stage, and armed disputes over territory and resources are more common.

“What we are seeing is a return to great power politics,” Castillo said. “In concrete terms, this new reality means the United States will have to make hard choices about where and when it uses military power. If we don’t make choices, we risk bankrupting ourselves, fighting non-essential wars that weaken us, or both.”

https://theweek.com/92967/are-we-heading-towards-world-war-3

Are we heading towards World War Three?

Doomsday pendulum swings back towards Europe amid warnings of a world war

MARCH 2024

Putting Nato troops in Ukraine would "bring the risk of a world war closer", Hungary's foreign minister has warned after France refused to rule out sending Western soldiers into the war-torn country.

Péter Szijjártó told Russian state-run news agency TASS that the "terrifying risk of a third world war is approaching" and warned "allies and colleagues" from doing anything to trigger further conflict.

Tensions between Russia and the West are far from isolated. There are several flashpoints around the world.

Russia

Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which began in February 2022, has been described as "more dangerous than anything Europe has seen since the end of World War II" by Politico.

It has triggered the "worst crisis in Russia's relations with the West since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis", said the Daily Mail. "Even talk of a confrontation between Russia and Nato – a Cold War nightmare of leaders and populations alike – indicates the dangers of escalation as the West grapples with a resurgent Russia 32 years after the 1991 fall of the Soviet Union."

European leaders are thought to be tiring of the conflict, now in its third year, and resistance is growing in Washington to open-ended financial support. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has warned that failure to fend off Russia's aggression could spiral into confrontation with Nato and that "certainly means the Third World War", said The Times.

If Putin remains "undeterred" in Ukraine, he will "almost certainly try his luck" in the Baltics, said Dominic Waghorn, Sky News's international affairs editor – "because he will assume the alliance is too spineless to stop him". That view will be reinforced if Donald Trump carries through with his threats to pull America out of the military alliance if he wins in November.

A Russian cruise missile violated Nato airspace on Sunday less than a week after Putin warned that a direct confrontation between Russia and the Western military alliance would be "one step away from a full-scale World War III", said Time.

There are fears the Russian president could use March's terrorist attack on a concert hall in Moscow, which left 137 people dead, as the pretext to escalate the war in Ukraine. Russian authorities have claimed the four men suspected of carrying out the attack were fleeing to safety across the border in Ukraine, although Kyiv has strongly denied any involvement and Islamic State's Afghanistan affiliate has claimed responsibility.

Middle East

For decades, Israel and Iran have been engaged in a "shadow war", said Foreign Affairs. Now, the war in Gaza is "disrupting their already delicate calculus, and the longer the conflict continues, the more it will reduce the incentives for moderation and raise the risk of Israeli-Iranian conflict".

Attacks by Iran's proxy groups, most recently on ships in the Red Sea, are part of wider efforts by Tehran to oppose Israel, end its war in Gaza and supplant the US (and, to a lesser extent, Saudi Arabia) as the foremost power in the Middle East.

Iran's allies and proxies have so far "been undeterred by the huge show of US force in the region", said Alex Rossi, Sky News's international correspondent, but Washington must "decide whether hostilities have now crossed the Rubicon", an Atlantic Council expert said.

February's drone attack by Iran-proxy group Islamic Resistance in Iraq on a US military base in Jordan sparked calls from Republicans for direct strikes on Tehran. It led Donald Trump to write on his Truth Social network: "We are on the brink of World War Three."

A confrontation between the US and Iran would "divide, perhaps permanently", Western democracies that would back Washington (such as the UK) and those who "might sensibly prioritise renewed diplomatic outreach to Tehran", said Simon Tisdall in The Guardian.

It would prolong Israel's war in Gaza, almost certainly trigger a Hezbollah attack on Israel, destabilise friendly regimes in Egypt, Jordan and the Gulf, escalate violence in Iraq and Syria, help China realise its anti-democratic geopolitical ambitions and aid Russia in justifying the Ukraine war, said Tisdall.

Another concern, Ali Vaez, an Iran expert at Crisis Group, told the Financial Times, is that "Tehran will turn to another avenue to up the stakes with the US – its nuclear programme".

China

The greatest threat to geopolitical stability has long been assumed to be the growing tensions between China and the US over the past few years. Despite a slight thawing that led to a ground-breaking meeting between leaders Xi Jinping and Joe Biden in November, core issues between the two – most notably, over the island of Taiwan and the question of its sovereignty – remain.

Beijing sees Taiwan as an integral part of a unified Chinese territory. It has, in recent years, adopted an increasingly aggressive stance towards the island and its ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which it has denounced as dangerous separatists. At the same time, the US Biden has ramped up its support – financially, militarily and rhetorically – for Taiwan's continued independence.

In response to the DPP's re-election in January for an unprecedented third term, China's Communist Party has "sharpened its rhetoric towards Taiwan, raising the pressure on the country as its president-elect Lai Ching-te prepares to take office in May", said the Financial Times. China's most senior official in charge of Taiwan policy after President Xi Jinping told an annual meeting of the Communist Party that Beijing "must resolutely fight 'Taiwan independence' separatism" and "further grasp the strategic initiative to achieve the complete unification of the motherland".

While most experts agree an imminent escalation is not on the cards, any invasion "would be one of the most dangerous and consequential events of the 21st century", said The Times. It would "make the Russian attack on Ukraine look like a sideshow by comparison".

The devastating human cost aside, a military conflict between the world's two biggest economies would lead to "a severing of global supply chains, a blow to confidence and crashing asset prices", said The Guardian's economics editor Larry Elliott. "It would have catastrophic economic consequences, up to and including a second Great Depression."

North Korea

Since talks with Trump broke down in 2019 over disagreements about international sanctions on Pyongyang, Kim Jon Un has "focused on modernising his nuclear and missile arsenals", according to Sky News.

In his New Year's Eve address, he warned that the actions of the US and its allies have pushed the Korean peninsula to the brink of nuclear war, and announced that the hermit kingdom had abandoned "the existential goal of reconciling with rival South Korea", said The Associated Press.

"We believe that, like his grandfather in 1950, Kim Jong Un has made a strategic decision to go to war," Robert L. Carlin and Siegfried S. Hecker wrote at 38 North, a website that tracks developments on the peninsula.

Alongside its military development, Kim has been "chumming up to Russia and remaining on the right side of China", said The Times's Asia editor Richard Lloyd Parry.

This has "added greatly to tension on the peninsula", said Lloyd Parry, and increased the chances of so-called miscalculation – "where one side assumes that the other is about to attack, and goes first".

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- Bloggery committed by chris tower - 2404.16 - 10:10

- Days ago = 3210 days ago

- New note - On 1807.06, I ceased daily transmission of my Hey Mom feature after three years of daily conversations. I plan to continue Hey Mom posts at least twice per week but will continue to post the days since ("Days Ago") count on my blog each day. The blog entry numbering in the title has changed to reflect total Sense of Doubt posts since I began the blog on 0705.04, which include Hey Mom posts, Daily Bowie posts, and Sense of Doubt posts. Hey Mom posts will still be numbered sequentially. New Hey Mom posts will use the same format as all the other Hey Mom posts; all other posts will feature this format seen here.