A Sense of Doubt blog post #3450 - SENSE OF DOUBT REPRINT - A Sense of Doubt blog post #1868 - "What the World Needs Now" is love... or ... TOILET PAPER - Virtually - Music Monday 2003.30 and 2407.29

A Sense of Doubt blog post #3450 - SENSE OF DOUBT REPRINT - A Sense of Doubt blog post #1868 - "What the World Needs Now" is love... or ... TOILET PAPER - Virtually - Music Monday 2003.30 and 2407.29

Time for another reprint.

As I was going through the Music Mondays, I spied a few that I felt were really deserving.

This one from early in the pandemic struck me especially strongly.

The  hoarding in that early period was astounding. I remember as I walked my dogs in the old Woodland neighborhood passing a garage with a giant stack of seven-eight huge packages of toilet paper (60 some rolls in each) like one buys at Costco or Sam's Club. And this was at a time when there was almost ZERO toilet paper to be had in the stores. 

I know toilet paper is an important comfort, but what is it the first to fly off the shelves instead of non-perishable food and water?

I remember liking the message that what the world needs now is LOVE as well as TOILET PAPER.

I have a good blog post from Brane Space below speaking to the TP hoarding, and it looks like only one image in is broken. I have too many blog posts (as this is 3450) to find let alone fix all the broken images or videos.

I am a Costco shopper, so when the TP hoarding cleared the shelves and the supply chain was broken, so no new TP was coming soon, I had a partial large package from Costco. I buy them one at a time, so when one is getting low, I get to the store for a new one. Just this year, 2024, I had to buy some at Safeway because I was delayed getting down to Costco. Don't get me started on why I hate going to Costco here in PDX compared to Kalamazoo. I should buy our TP from time to time at Safeway just to remind myself of why I buy it at Costco and how much money I save in doing so.

But we did run out of the good stuff during the early months of the pandemic and had to rely on some shitty stuff for a while (pun intended).

And every time, I walked past that guy's open garage with his enormous stack of TP for just his elderly self and his wife, I wanted to either rant at him about the inhumanity of such hoarding or offer him $100 for a package. I wonder if he would have sold me the package for the $100. I could just see him saying no, thinking he would need all that TP.

I did not like that neighborhood or Woodland at all. I am glad I do not live there anymore, which I was just saying out loud yesterday.

Here's the reprint.

Thanks for tuning in.

Monday, March 30, 2020

A Sense of Doubt blog post #1868 - "What the World Needs Now" is love... or ... TOILET PAPER - Virtually - Musical Monday 2003.30

https://www.20k.org/episodes/virtualchoir

A Sense of Doubt blog post #1868 - "What the World Needs Now" is love... or ... TOILET PAPER - Virtually - Musical Monday 2003.30

Hey, this is a good idea. Virtual choirs! I didn't know that this was a thing until the other day. A friend shared this first video with me, and then I found others. See below.

I added a recent LILY LINES newsletter link, a feature of the Washington Post of news about women written and compiled by women.

I also added two blog posts from BRANE SPACE about toilet paper. The first speaks to the hoarding panic, and the second the scary possibility that companies will stop producing toilet paper, which means those of us who did not hoard will run out and not be able to get any???

It made me re-think this song (just below). What the world needs now is love or toilet paper?

BRANE SPACE rightly contends that people see toilet paper as a sign of civilization, of the benefits of the first world economy, and as an essential ingredient of the lifestyle of the first world. And yet, is is it really so essential? My wife just bought us a bidet. Have to hook it up.

And now some music...

Shelbie Rassler

1.13K subscribers

Just a little something to brighten your day. What started as an idea on my flight home from college ended in a collaboration with some of the most incredible people. I couldn't be more grateful. Please share to help us promote positivity and optimism while we need it most. 💜 "What the World Needs Now" Music by Burt Bacharach, Lyrics by Hal David for Virtual Orchestra featuring Annika Reece, Bailey Chastain, Blake Dylan Pilger, Brielle Paige, Carlos Cordova, Carlyn Barenholtz, Cheyenne Bates, Chris Janson, Christina Jones, Clara Mazo, Dean Scarlett, Deniz Demirkurt, Dylan Quick, Eevie Perez, Eli Schildkraut, Emery Henderson, Emily Chiang, Emma O’Loughlin, Emma Rose Bauman, Erika Lopez, Fausto Capelluto, Freddy Renaud, Gabby Paige, Gioia Gedicks, Hagar Adam, Jacob Kent, Jacqueleen Schweighardt, Jennifer Molsen, Jeremy Tolsky, Jesse Howard Timm, Jiayi Wang, Jin-yeong So, John Fulton, Joshua Jowdy, Justin Veira, Kailey Fretwell, Karen Rassler, Kelsey Macdonald, Kevin Sells, Kris Leslie, Lilly Gitlitz, Lily James, Lindsey Faber, Liv Nurmi, Mae Hurtig, Maeve Reilly, Matt Henegan, Matt McDonnell, Meagan Nagy, Meghan Marshall, Melissa Zeller, Mia Goodman, Michael Mastroianni, Michael Valladares, Mikayla Cohen, Morgan Cohen, Nick Preziosi, Paul Lutty, Peli Woods, Peri Elizabeth Rutkovitz, Peyton Cook, Philomena Gildea, Rachel Tata, Robbie Shields, Robert Newman, Ryan Fogal, Ryan Scott Fossier, Sage Jepson, Samuel Kelly-Cohen, Sarah Nichols, Shelbie Rassler, Shelby Tudor, Skylar Jepson Produced, arranged and edited by Shelbie Rassler Mix Engineer Dan Santiago


The HOARDING IDIOCY.

PLEASE STOP HOARDING.



http://brane-space.blogspot.com/2020/03/can-we-please-finally-stop-toilet-paper.html

Monday, March 23, 2020

What's Really Behind The Toilet Paper Panic Buying?

Scene in one supermarket and the panic buying person isn't even aware he stands out like a half-baked  moron.

"People should worry about the supply of ventilators, breathing masks and protective gear for health care workers, but should relax about TP."   (The Wall Street Journal today, 'The Great Toilet Paper Scare' , p. A16.

There is no doubt the frenzied stockpiling of "bathroom tissue" (aka toilet paper) has become a source of amusement for some.  Hysterical shoppers racing into stores desperate to find the 3- or 4-ply tissue so they are not reduced to using leaves- or worse alternatives for modern plumbing systems - e.g.  paper napkins or Kleenex tissues.  As  I checked out of the Safeway three days ago the cashier related how she was the receiving end of yelling and abuse from at least two unhinged female shoppers:

"Where is it? Where?  Why aren't you stocked? Why?" 

They shouted at the poor cashier as if she had total control of all shipping manifests from here to L.A. and back and wouldn't accept the answer that the restocking only fills one third of shelves at most and then the few items are snapped up in a minute or less when the store opens. (A slight advantage to older folks is the store opens early on two weekdays when only those over 65 are allowed, or other vulnerable, e.g. disabled, people.

What gives? Why have people gone bonkers with this toilet paper stockpiling?  Why have  (generally) sane and rational shoppers so often descended to performing cringe worthy scenes such as that shown above ?  One reason is sheer fear manifested as an "excretory and fecal phobia" as my now tenure- track psychology niece Shayle puts it.

"People in the first world see toilet paper as a proxy for civilization.  Not to have it means they descend into a proto-primitive state in which they are in closer proximity to their primary excretions. It's appalling for them to even consider other practical options - like washcloths- which do not eliminate the sight and smell so easily."

Another professor, Rohan Miller from the University of Sydney, believes it is a reflection of an urbanized society and lifestyle where modern convenience reigns supreme.  (A point with which Shayle also concurs.)  As Prof. Miller puts it:

"We're not used to shortages and scarcity, we're used to being able to pick and choose what we want, when we want. So the rush to get toilet paper is just this sheep mentality to maintain that status,"

Adding:

"I think people want to make sure they have some comforts in their lives if they're going to be shacked up with their family for a long time," 

Maybe  Prof. Miller and Shayle have a point. In any event she has no issues nor have my other nieces who all use portable bidets. No need for paper at all.  As Shayle notes "The stuff is toxic to the environment."  See e,g.

• Climate Writer To 1st World Elites: "Stop Using Pl...

Excerpt from a quote by Sue Mcmillin:

"Millions of trees in virgin forests are being logged every year and turned into pulp for toilet paper, tissues... that we use only once and  flush or throw away. Boreal forests in Canada are being destroyed for our tushes."

Meanwhile, many news columnists and online commentators are flummoxed over the need for an item which, were it to run out, does have rougher substitutes.  On the prostate cancer survivors' (Team Inspire) Group one whole thread was devoted to Pandemic-Toilet Paper?  This is a rational concern for many especially who have had any kind of radiation therapy, especially brachytherapy. (Notably the type for which "seeds" are implanted into the gland).  The usual complaint is frequent bowel movements from the radiation's effect.  Hence, if a patient who's just had brachy has to run to the toilet 10-15 times a day it can be serious. The general tenor of questions ran long the lines of: "What can we do instead if there is NO toilet paper?"

The most immediate responses to come back were "You can always use a washcloth (or washcloths) then soak them in a bleach solution."

But then again, there may be no chlorine bleach to be had. In The Denver Post Saturday, under one particular piece ('Toilet Paper Shortage: Plumbing Pros Warn Against Clogging Pipes', p. 7A), one of Denver's Roto Rooter experts (Kyle Ray)  offered this advice (clipped from article and scanned):


Mr. Ray before delivering this stellar and common sense advice, also imparted the No-No's that those caught without T.P. should never ever do. These include:

- Use of paper towels, napkins and other "atypical wiping material"

- Faial tissue "is another bad idea can be used in place of toilet paper in small amounts, if flushed frequently"  How much? No more than 1-2 sheets, preferably 1 per flus.

- Flushable wipes - even if they say "flushable" - "Are just too thick and don't break down".  So if you use them you risk a toilet backing up.

Consumer psychology experts - in a "duh!' demonstration - mostly agree the behavior is "obviously irrational".  It's also a clear example of herd mentality whipped up by  news coverage of empty shelves, and social media  hysteria (Some of it fueled by wacko conspiracy ideations.)  Part of it is also driven by the ubiquitous FOMO syndrome - or Fear Of Missing Out.  The pictures of bare aisles haven't helped.  This entices other (once sane) shoppers to then go nuts and also grab multiple huge packs if they are available.  All of which makes life hard for those who may really need the stuff, say like prostate cancer radiation therapy patients.

Of course, supermarkets and box warehouse stores (like Costco, Big Lots etc.) could easily put the kibosh on this nonsense by simply limiting each customer to one purchase of a large multi-pack at one time. This is already being done in Barbados, as well as a supermarket chain in Dallas (according to The Dallas Morning News).  Also, this a.m. at our Safeway, toilet paper was in stock (Viva, Aisle 4) and the cashier told me the store had a one 8-pack limit per customer.  About time!

One thing we know, according to multiple pieces in the WSJ, is the warehouses of the manufacturers are laden with product. The only problem, if there is one, is getting the supply chains to run more expeditiously - and again, this could be helped if people were more rational in their purchases - and weren't seized by the stockpile syndrome, almost always driven by fear.  Look, in a worst case scenario - presented in this report, released last Monday by an epidemic modeling group at Imperial College London -  we could be in lockdown mode for 18 months or until a vaccine is widely available.  That doesn't mean we run out of T..P. only that people purchase it and other items (e.g. hand sanitizer) in a judicious and rational manner.  It means a sense of self-rationing of supplies, even if the state or federal gov't won't or stores are too timid. It means, in essence, the cooperative attitude of Americans during World War II.

Prof. Miller's final  point is one well worth considering:

"Toilet paper doesn't really matter - it's just so far down the survival list compared to other things like food or water - but it's just something many people in the developed world need to preserve at least the veneer of civilization....and creature comforts!"

See also:

Coronavirus | Economic Policy

How to Wage War, FDR-Style, on Our Pandemic

And:

The Trump Administration | Coronavirus | Government

The Case for an Indictment of the US Government for Criminal Negligence for Its Bungled Response to COVID-19

And:

China | Coronavirus

Why Americans Should Stop Talking About 'China Flu' and Learn From China

And:

The Trump Administration | Coronavirus

The Price Gouging of Crystal Balls and Tin Foil Hats

http://brane-space.blogspot.com/2020/03/could-toilet-paper-manufacturing-come.html

Monday, March 30, 2020

Could Toilet Paper Manufacturing Come to Halt In Two Months? It's Possible If People Don't Stop Panic Buying

Graph showing level of demand on toilet paper.


According to a recent WSJ piece:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/relax-america-the-u-s-has-plenty-of-toilet-paper-11584388168

Toilet paper production could conceivably come to a full stop in 2 months if people fail to come to their senses and cease panic buying. Why?   The mass stockpiling of toilet paper is now forecast to cut  manufacturers' sales down the road, or even destroy their profit margins.    In the words of one manufacturer of a popular brand:

"We've all seen photos of people carrying shopping carts filled with toilet paper out of stores. They probably won't buy more for three to four months. " 

The last sentence portends what the companies all fear is a  "demand shock"  which will strain the system, and indeed could send it off the tracks.   Think of it, the plants and mills are cranking this stuff out 24/7 to try to meet a truly aberrational demand not based on reason or need (i.e. the average couple needs only 2 rolls per week, so 144 rolls in multiple large packages would last them 72 weeks or nearly  1 1/2 YEARS.)

According to the one CEO:

"We purchase large rolls from mills and our equipment cuts and packages them into the designated end product like toilet paper or kitchen towels, depending on the quality of the paper.  

Most mills are operating 24 hours, 7 days a week operations already. They are running on fixed capacity.  It's not like there's an idle machine that can be cranked up to increase production." 

The last point is the most critical for consumers to grasp.   In addition, that this fixed production capacity for the paper plants is offset by a different fixed capacity for retailers like Krogers, King  Soopers or Safeway.  The latter is spelled s-p-a-c-e.  Toilet paper takes up a lot of space, and there is only so much space even in a large supermarket or wholesale operation like Costco.  If these retailers allow all the toilet paper that can be delivered to sit there taking up hundreds of cubic feet of space, there won't be room to store other products people also need.   This is especially given toilet paper is relatively low cost compared to other products that can be stored like toiletries, or meats (in cold storage). 

This condition of limited space for the retail outlets means they can only afford to keep a set amount of inventory on hand. Even if all the toilet paper made by the all  companies could be delivered to retailers  who might need the added amount there's no way they'd be able to find the space to put it.   The backlog has meant manufacturers are no longer dispatching as many trucks with the products to the stores, at least until they clear their own inventory.

This has led the same CEO quoted earlier to conjecture:

"What I suspect is happening right now is retailers are tapping into toilet paper inventory that's sitting in their warehouses until they get more shipment from producers."

 But the producers don't want to send any more until the retailers clear their own warehouses out, so companies aren't stuck storing the surplus indefinitely. Or hiring more truckers to deliver it.   That means loss of profits including having to hire more warehouse workers. 

Basically, here's what has happened: The stores had stored TP like many other items according to a "just in time" model. In this frame, the given industry - whether for TP, cold drinks, meats, milk or whatnot - adopts a strategy that aims to produce, ship and stock as few goods as needed, to meet current demand.   Thus, by decreasing the capacity of their distribution centers they were able to save on rent, utilities as well as labor.  Meanwhile, distributors saved on fuel and wages.   Manufacturers also gained by cutting down on capital locked  up in unsold inventory.

The more unsold inventory, the more capital lost.  Again, if people no longer purchase toilet paper after the pandemic ends, because they have so much of it, the manufacturers will be in a world of hurt via lost capital. 

Basically then, the hysterical run on stores for toilet paper has capsized every aspect of the just in time model.   As one Walmart exec put it to a WSJ reporter (March 24, p. B4, 'Grocers Revamp Inventory Strategies'):

"We had sold three months of supplies in 10 days. Nobody keeps three months worth of anything anymore."

To adjust to the increase in demand grocers have had to make more space for certain inventory and manufacturers have had to maximize output.  This has assured more than enough toilet paper technically, if people would just back off and cease the hysterical buying of so much.  (Grocers could help here by limiting purchases to one package per customer)

In the meantime, the manufacturers are repurposing production, for example to make  less bathroom paper towels and more toilet paper.  But there are ongoing worries of a supply chain breakdown and the weak link in the chain appears to be truckers who have to be the main ones delivering it to the retail stores.  To those who may not realize it, truckers are now seeing hell having to meet this punishing demand, often remaining in their trucks with no restroom stops (having to us diapers) and also no more truck stops to feed them. (One New Orleans trucker admitted to the Times Picayune his wife makes him a large 'vat' of hot gumbo for each trip which he eats in the cab.)

Consumer products company Kimberly-Clark (KMB), whose retail toilet paper brands include Scott and Cottonelle, said it is taking steps to accelerate production and reallocating inventory to meet current demand.   In a statement to CNN Business, the KMB CEO said:

"We want to assure consumers that we are doing our best to ensure a steady supply of product to stores, and will continue to make adjustments to our plans as necessary,

Another way suppliers are responding to the toilet paper craze: Some are cutting out distribution centers, sending trucks directly to and from paper factories to get product onto shelves more quickly, said Scott Luton, founder and CEO of Supply Chain Now Radio, a digital media company focused on supply chain management.

But less said now,  except in only certain business pages - like in the WSJ-  is that some companies are considering halting their production, certainly by the end of May.  They simply don't trust Americans - stacked to the brim with hundreds of rolls - will go on buying it when the COVID-19 plague ends.

And they don't want to deal with the demand shock of thousands of cubic feet of toilet paper stuck in their warehouses representing millions of bucks in lost capital.

So get a grip, people, and no more toilet paper hysteria.

And so apparently this virtual choir or symphony thing is A THING, here's some more...
And, now, more music...













Lily Lines newsletter March 30, 2020

This newsletter was made while listening to:

“Stay Flo” by Solange 

  Listen to everything we’ve recommended here.

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- Bloggery committed by chris tower - 2003.30 - 10:10
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- Bloggery committed by chris tower - 2407.29 - 10:10

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- New note - On 1807.06, I ceased daily transmission of my Hey Mom feature after three years of daily conversations. I plan to continue Hey Mom posts at least twice per week but will continue to post the days since ("Days Ago") count on my blog each day. The blog entry numbering in the title has changed to reflect total Sense of Doubt posts since I began the blog on 0705.04, which include Hey Mom posts, Daily Bowie posts, and Sense of Doubt posts. Hey Mom posts will still be numbered sequentially. New Hey Mom posts will use the same format as all the other Hey Mom posts; all other posts will feature this format seen here.