 |
| https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/1181981/the-milky-way-end-of-world-galaxy-space-news-stars-earth-andromeda |
This post is a hodge podge of various news, NOT an April Fool's joke. I spent extra attention on making sure that this post was not simply full of just Novel Coronavirus news.
PERSPECTIVE.
Putting news together like I have here emphasizes perspective. I chose the milky way story for the banner image and in the title to promote this idea. Let's all have perspective. We all get through this. Many of us will survive. LOVE WINS, which is a new category to always find this powerful image made here in PDX.
LOVE WINS.
My friend realised he had coronavirus and stayed at home to self-isolate.— Lorraine King (@lorrainemking) March 28, 2020
He was following the government's advice and ended up dying alone in his flat yesterday at the age of just 50.
Please check up on anyone you know is self-isolating on their own.
No one should die alone 😢
Trump says its time to go back to work, even if it kills you.— ⚜️THE DARK ANGEL⚜️ (@DarkAngel_USA) March 24, 2020
#GOPDeathPanels pic.twitter.com/eqyHlKjp3M
Thanks! @LeParadisBistro #Toronto for opening 5 + 9 pm & providing sanitized-bag, socially-distanced yummy takeout dinners for the likes of (little, old) me.. https://t.co/B4IdYRIXBi Phone order in advance; delivery too. In this neighbourhood for @ 34 years. Support local biz!— Margaret E. Atwood (@MargaretAtwood) March 29, 2020
CHECK THIS MAP!
This is a great map (just below) for current counts of cases and deaths worldwide and a wonderful visual display to watch the spread of the virus.
It looks like this: (static capture):
Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University (JHU)
https://news.slashdot.org/story/20/03/19/0232245/what-happens-if-the-us-does-absolutely-nothing-to-combat-covid-19
What Happens If the US Does Absolutely Nothing To Combat COVID-19? (twitter.com)
On Monday, the Imperial College report on COVID-19 was released and the results are terrifying. For those who may not know, the Imperial College in London "has advised the government on its response to previous epidemics, including SARS, avian flu and swine flu," reports The New York Times. "With ties to the World Health Organization and a team of 50 scientists, led by a prominent epidemiologist, Neil Ferguson, Imperial is treated as a sort of gold standard, its mathematical models feeding directly into government policies."
In a series of tweets, Jeremy C. Young, Assistant Professor of History at Dixie State, summarized what the report says would happen if the U.S. does absolutely nothing. That is, if we treat COVID-19 like the flu, go about our business, and let the virus take its course. The Imperial College team plugged infection and death rates from China, Korea, and Italy into epidemic modeling software and ran a simulation... Here's what would happen:80% of Americans would get the disease. 0.9% of them would die. Between 4 and 8 percent of all Americans over the age of 70 would die. 2.2 million Americans would die from the virus itself. It gets worse. People with severe COVID-19 need to be put on ventilators. 50% of those on ventilators still die, but the other 50% live. But in an unmitigated epidemic, the need for ventilators would be 30 times the number available in the US. Nearly 100% of these patients die.
So the actual death toll from the virus would be closer to 4 million Americans -- in a span of 3 months. 8-15% of all Americans over 70 would die. How many is 4 million people? It's more Americans than have died all at once from anything, ever. It's the population of Los Angeles. It's 4 times the number of Americans who died in the Civil War...on both sides combined. It's two-thirds as many people as died in the Holocaust. Americans make up 4.4% of the world's population. If we extrapolate these numbers to the rest of the world (warning: MOE is high here), this gives us 90 million deaths globally from COVID-19, in 3-6 months. 15 Holocausts. 1.5 times as many people as died in all of World War II.The Imperial College then ran the numbers for what would happen if countries assumed a "mitigation" strategy and "suppression" strategy. You can read the full summarized breakdown of what happens in each scenario below, but basically the mitigation strategy flattens the curve with an actual death toll at around two million deaths while the suppression strategy has the death rate in the U.S. peaking at 3 weeks with only a few thousand deaths.
You can view a screenshot of the thread below:
In a series of tweets, Jeremy C. Young, Assistant Professor of History at Dixie State, summarized what the report says would happen if the U.S. does absolutely nothing. That is, if we treat COVID-19 like the flu, go about our business, and let the virus take its course. The Imperial College team plugged infection and death rates from China, Korea, and Italy into epidemic modeling software and ran a simulation... Here's what would happen:80% of Americans would get the disease. 0.9% of them would die. Between 4 and 8 percent of all Americans over the age of 70 would die. 2.2 million Americans would die from the virus itself. It gets worse. People with severe COVID-19 need to be put on ventilators. 50% of those on ventilators still die, but the other 50% live. But in an unmitigated epidemic, the need for ventilators would be 30 times the number available in the US. Nearly 100% of these patients die.
So the actual death toll from the virus would be closer to 4 million Americans -- in a span of 3 months. 8-15% of all Americans over 70 would die. How many is 4 million people? It's more Americans than have died all at once from anything, ever. It's the population of Los Angeles. It's 4 times the number of Americans who died in the Civil War...on both sides combined. It's two-thirds as many people as died in the Holocaust. Americans make up 4.4% of the world's population. If we extrapolate these numbers to the rest of the world (warning: MOE is high here), this gives us 90 million deaths globally from COVID-19, in 3-6 months. 15 Holocausts. 1.5 times as many people as died in all of World War II.The Imperial College then ran the numbers for what would happen if countries assumed a "mitigation" strategy and "suppression" strategy. You can read the full summarized breakdown of what happens in each scenario below, but basically the mitigation strategy flattens the curve with an actual death toll at around two million deaths while the suppression strategy has the death rate in the U.S. peaking at 3 weeks with only a few thousand deaths.
You can view a screenshot of the thread below:
Feels so long ago 🤯 https://t.co/KWDV1ko3bm— Ganzeer | جنزير (@ganzeer) March 29, 2020
So I tried learning ‘HER’ in BSL with the help of @itsemiIyrose !— ANNE-MARIE (@AnneMarie) March 27, 2020
I hope i’ve done this ok! What a beautiful language! Go stream HER now. pic.twitter.com/2r4BAR8NAd
https://yro.slashdot.org/story/20/03/18/1530231/medical-company-threatens-to-sue-volunteers-that-3d-printed-valves-for-life-saving-coronavirus-treatments
Medical Company Threatens To Sue Volunteers That 3D-Printed Valves for Life-Saving Coronavirus Treatments (theverge.com)
A medical device manufacturer has threatened to sue a group of volunteers in Italy that 3D printed a valve used for life-saving coronavirus treatments. From a report:The valve typically costs about $11,000 from the medical device manufacturer, but the volunteers were able to print replicas for about $1. A hospital in Italy was in need of the valves after running out while treating patients for COVID-19. The hospital's usual supplier said they could not make the valves in time to treat the patients. That launched a search for a way to 3D print a replica part, and Cristian Fracassi and Alessandro Ramaioli, who work at Italian startup Isinnova, offered their company's printer for the job. However, when the pair asked the manufacturer of the valves for blueprints they could use to print replicas, the company declined and threatened to sue for patent infringement. Fracassi and Ramaioli moved ahead anyway by measuring the valves and 3D printing three different versions of them.
https://science.slashdot.org/story/20/03/19/1934259/twitter-broadly-bans-any-covid-19-tweets-that-could-help-the-virus-spread
Twitter Broadly Bans Any COVID-19 Tweets That Could Help the Virus Spread (techcrunch.com)
An anonymous reader quotes a report from TechCrunch:On Wednesday, Twitter updated its safety policy to prohibit tweets that "could place people at a higher risk of transmitting COVID-19." The new policy bans tweets denying expert guidance on the virus, encouraging "fake or ineffective treatments, preventions and diagnostic techniques" as well as tweets that mislead users by pretending to be from health authorities or experts. In its blog post, Twitter says that it will "require people to remove Tweets" in these cases and we've asked the company for more clarification on what that looks like.
Twitter indicated that it will take context like account history into account in making its enforcement determinations, which it says remain unchanged. As far as having users remove offending tweets, according to the company's existing guidance "When we determine that a Tweet violated the Twitter Rules, we require the violator to remove it before they can Tweet again." A user is notified of this via email and given a chance to delete the tweet or make an appeal. While that is happening, the tweet is hidden from view. Under the ruleset, a tweet that claims "social distancing is not effective" would be subject to removal. Twitter will also require users to delete tweets telling followers to do ineffective or dangerous things like drinking bleach, even if the tweet is "made in jest" because that content can prove harmful when taken out of context.Twitter is banning tweets encouraging people to behave in a way counter to what health authorities recommend. The rules will also prohibit users from playing armchair doctor, as well as making coronavirus claims that single out groups of people based on race or nationality.
Twitter indicated that it will take context like account history into account in making its enforcement determinations, which it says remain unchanged. As far as having users remove offending tweets, according to the company's existing guidance "When we determine that a Tweet violated the Twitter Rules, we require the violator to remove it before they can Tweet again." A user is notified of this via email and given a chance to delete the tweet or make an appeal. While that is happening, the tweet is hidden from view. Under the ruleset, a tweet that claims "social distancing is not effective" would be subject to removal. Twitter will also require users to delete tweets telling followers to do ineffective or dangerous things like drinking bleach, even if the tweet is "made in jest" because that content can prove harmful when taken out of context.Twitter is banning tweets encouraging people to behave in a way counter to what health authorities recommend. The rules will also prohibit users from playing armchair doctor, as well as making coronavirus claims that single out groups of people based on race or nationality.
Scientists Say They Can Recreate Living Dinosaurs Within the Next 5 Years http://t.co/NCHlCVx8ad by @Geoff_Weiss pic.twitter.com/4vk36Xa13Y— Entrepreneur (@Entrepreneur) June 16, 2015
https://yro.slashdot.org/story/20/03/22/0458231/russia-accused-of-deploying-coronavirus-disinformation-to-sow-distrust
Russia Accused of Deploying Coronavirus Disinformation to Sow Distrust (reuters.com)
AmiMoJo quotes Reuters:Russian media have deployed a "significant disinformation campaign" against the West to worsen the impact of the coronavirus, generate panic and sow distrust, according to a European Union document seen by Reuters... The EU document said the Russian campaign, pushing fake news online in English, Spanish, Italian, German and French, uses contradictory, confusing and malicious reports to make it harder for the EU to communicate its response to the pandemic.
"A significant disinformation campaign by Russian state media and pro-Kremlin outlets regarding COVID-19 is ongoing," said the nine-page internal document, dated March 16, using the name of the disease that can be caused by the coronavirus. "The overarching aim of Kremlin disinformation is to aggravate the public health crisis in Western countries...in line with the Kremlin's broader strategy of attempting to subvert European societies," the document produced by the EU's foreign policy arm, the European External Action Service, said.
The article notes that while Russia calls the accusations "unfounded," the EU has recorded nearly 80 cases of coronavirus disinformation since January 22nd. Responding to the report, America's Secretary of State also criticized disinformation efforts coming from China and Iran, according to U.S. News and World Report. He adds that the U.S. government has since contacted all three of the disinformation-spreading countries.
"They need to knock it off. We don't approve of it. The idea of transparency and accuracy in information is very important."
"A significant disinformation campaign by Russian state media and pro-Kremlin outlets regarding COVID-19 is ongoing," said the nine-page internal document, dated March 16, using the name of the disease that can be caused by the coronavirus. "The overarching aim of Kremlin disinformation is to aggravate the public health crisis in Western countries...in line with the Kremlin's broader strategy of attempting to subvert European societies," the document produced by the EU's foreign policy arm, the European External Action Service, said.
The article notes that while Russia calls the accusations "unfounded," the EU has recorded nearly 80 cases of coronavirus disinformation since January 22nd. Responding to the report, America's Secretary of State also criticized disinformation efforts coming from China and Iran, according to U.S. News and World Report. He adds that the U.S. government has since contacted all three of the disinformation-spreading countries.
"They need to knock it off. We don't approve of it. The idea of transparency and accuracy in information is very important."
Fred “Curly” Neal – the Harlem Globetrotters icon known worldwide for his trademark shaved head and charismatic smile – passed away this morning in his home outside of Houston at the age of 77. pic.twitter.com/JdZa6zTvZU— Harlem Globetrotters (@Globies) March 26, 2020
Hubert Eugene "Geese" Ausbie is now the last survivor of the cast of the 1970-3 Hanna-Barbera @CBS animated series. pic.twitter.com/dq0kBzjKhG— Aaron Handy III (@AH3RD) March 26, 2020
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/28958864/globetrotters-legend-fred-curly-neal-dies-77
Harvard assistant professor of exposure and assessment science @j_g_allen does excellent work explaining why the deliveries and groceries you bring home are pretty safe, despite the ability of covid to persist on surfaces for days.https://t.co/pw0LZ3Bpr2— Bernie Beats Trump (@doctorow) March 29, 2020
1/ pic.twitter.com/gMCpktpFjM
 |
| https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/astronomers-are-finally-mapping-the-ldquo-dark-side-rdquo-of-the-milky-way/ |
https://science.slashdot.org/story/20/03/28/0437223/astronomers-have-finally-found-the-edge-of-the-milky-way
Astronomers Have Finally Found the Edge of the Milky Way (sciencenews.org)
Iwastheone quotes Science News:Astronomers have long known that the brightest part of the Milky Way, the pancake-shaped disk of stars that houses the sun, is some 120,000 light-years across. Beyond this stellar disk is a disk of gas. A vast halo of dark matter, presumably full of invisible particles, engulfs both disks and stretches far beyond them. But because the dark halo emits no light, its diameter is hard to measure. Now, Alis Deason, an astrophysicist at Durham University in England, and her colleagues have used nearby galaxies to locate the Milky Way's edge...
To find the Milky Way's edge, Deason's team conducted computer simulations of how giant galaxies like the Milky Way form. In particular, the scientists sought cases where two giant galaxies arose side by side, like the Milky Way and Andromeda, our nearest giant neighbor, because each galaxy's gravity tugs on the other. The simulations showed that just beyond the edge of a giant galaxy's dark halo, the velocities of small nearby galaxies drop sharply. Using existing telescope observations, Deason and her colleagues found a similar plunge in the speeds of small galaxies near the Milky Way. This occurred at a distance of about 950,000 light-years from the Milky Way's center, marking the galaxy's edge, the scientists say.
To find the Milky Way's edge, Deason's team conducted computer simulations of how giant galaxies like the Milky Way form. In particular, the scientists sought cases where two giant galaxies arose side by side, like the Milky Way and Andromeda, our nearest giant neighbor, because each galaxy's gravity tugs on the other. The simulations showed that just beyond the edge of a giant galaxy's dark halo, the velocities of small nearby galaxies drop sharply. Using existing telescope observations, Deason and her colleagues found a similar plunge in the speeds of small galaxies near the Milky Way. This occurred at a distance of about 950,000 light-years from the Milky Way's center, marking the galaxy's edge, the scientists say.
 |
| https://www.space.com/29270-milky-way-size-larger-than-thought.html |
https://science.slashdot.org/story/20/03/29/0254223/us-officials-use-mobile-ad-location-data-to-study-how-covid-19-spreads
US Officials Use Mobile Ad Location Data to Study How COVID-19 Spreads (wsj.com)
An anonymous reader quotes the Wall Street Journal:Government officials across the U.S. are using location data from millions of cellphones in a bid to better understand the movements of Americans during the coronavirus pandemic and how they may be affecting the spread of the disease...
The data comes from the mobile advertising industry rather than cellphone carriers. The aim is to create a portal for federal, state and local officials that contains geolocation data in what could be as many as 500 cities across the U.S., one of the people said, to help plan the epidemic response... It shows which retail establishments, parks and other public spaces are still drawing crowds that could risk accelerating the transmission of the virus, according to people familiar with the matter... The data can also reveal general levels of compliance with stay-at-home or shelter-in-place orders, according to experts inside and outside government, and help measure the pandemic's economic impact by revealing the drop-off in retail customers at stores, decreases in automobile miles driven and other economic metrics.
The CDC has started to get analyses based on location data through through an ad hoc coalition of tech companies and data providers — all working in conjunction with the White House and others in government, people said.
The CDC and the White House didn't respond to requests for comment.
It's the cellphone carriers turning over pandemic-fighting data in Germany, Austria, Spain, Belgium, the U.K., according to the article, while Israel mapped infections using its intelligence agencies' antiterrorism phone-tracking. But so far in the U.S., "the data being used has largely been drawn from the advertising industry.
"The mobile marketing industry has billions of geographic data points on hundreds of millions of U.S. cell mobile devices..."
The data comes from the mobile advertising industry rather than cellphone carriers. The aim is to create a portal for federal, state and local officials that contains geolocation data in what could be as many as 500 cities across the U.S., one of the people said, to help plan the epidemic response... It shows which retail establishments, parks and other public spaces are still drawing crowds that could risk accelerating the transmission of the virus, according to people familiar with the matter... The data can also reveal general levels of compliance with stay-at-home or shelter-in-place orders, according to experts inside and outside government, and help measure the pandemic's economic impact by revealing the drop-off in retail customers at stores, decreases in automobile miles driven and other economic metrics.
The CDC has started to get analyses based on location data through through an ad hoc coalition of tech companies and data providers — all working in conjunction with the White House and others in government, people said.
The CDC and the White House didn't respond to requests for comment.
It's the cellphone carriers turning over pandemic-fighting data in Germany, Austria, Spain, Belgium, the U.K., according to the article, while Israel mapped infections using its intelligence agencies' antiterrorism phone-tracking. But so far in the U.S., "the data being used has largely been drawn from the advertising industry.
"The mobile marketing industry has billions of geographic data points on hundreds of millions of U.S. cell mobile devices..."
https://news.slashdot.org/story/20/03/29/0217259/should-students-still-be-graded-in-the-time-of-covid-19
Should Students Still Be Graded In the Time of Covid-19? (thecrimson.com)
theodp writes:The LA Times reports that controversies over grading are roiling universities and colleges, as the coronavirus outbreak prompted them to shift to online learning and send most students home to disparate circumstances. Some students and faculty believe that normal grading practices during these times are deeply unfair, while others feel students should be able to choose between a letter grade or pass/fail, arguing that earning high marks can distinguish them for jobs, scholarships or graduate school.
At Harvard, all undergraduates will receive grades of either "Emergency Satisfactory" or "Emergency Unsatisfactory" in their spring classes. Faculty may supplement this terminology with a "qualitative assessment of student learning."
The coronavirus situation has also prompted grading changes at the high school level. The College Board announced that all AP exams will be streamlined and only include questions on material covered thru early March. Students taking the AP Computer Science Principles course will not even be subjected to an AP exam in 2020 but can still earn college credit.
At Harvard, all undergraduates will receive grades of either "Emergency Satisfactory" or "Emergency Unsatisfactory" in their spring classes. Faculty may supplement this terminology with a "qualitative assessment of student learning."
The coronavirus situation has also prompted grading changes at the high school level. The College Board announced that all AP exams will be streamlined and only include questions on material covered thru early March. Students taking the AP Computer Science Principles course will not even be subjected to an AP exam in 2020 but can still earn college credit.
NYT Investigates America's 'Lost Month' for Coronavirus Testing (msn.com)
The New York Times interviewed over 50 current and former U.S. health officials, senior scientists, company executives, and administration officials to investigate America's "lost month" without widespread coronavirus testing, "when the world's richest country — armed with some of the most highly trained scientists and infectious disease specialists — squandered its best chance of containing the virus's spread."With capacity so limited, the Center for Disease Control's criteria for who was tested remained extremely narrow for weeks to come: only people who had recently traveled to China or had been in contact with someone who had the virus. The lack of tests in the states also meant local public health officials could not use another essential epidemiological tool: surveillance testing. To see where the virus might be hiding, nasal swab samples from people screened for the common flu would also be checked for the coronavirus...
Even though researchers around the country quickly began creating tests that could diagnose Covid-19, many said they were hindered by the Food and Drug Administration's approval process. The new tests sat unused at labs around the country. Stanford was one of them. Researchers at the world-renowned university had a working test by February, based on protocols published by the World Health Organization.... By early March, after federal officials finally announced changes to expand testing, it was too late. With the early lapses, containment was no longer an option. The tool kit of epidemiology would shift — lockdowns, social disruption, intensive medical treatment — in hopes of mitigating the harm.
Now, the United States has more than 100,000 coronavirus cases, the most of any country in the world... And still, many Americans sickened by the virus cannot get tested... In tacit acknowledgment of the shortage, Mr. Trump asked South Korea's president on Monday to send as many test kits as possible from the 100,000 produced there daily, more than the country needs. Public health experts reacted positively to the increased capacity. But having the ability to diagnose the disease three months after it was first disclosed by China does little to address why the United States was unable to do so sooner, when it might have helped reduce the toll of the pandemic.
Even though researchers around the country quickly began creating tests that could diagnose Covid-19, many said they were hindered by the Food and Drug Administration's approval process. The new tests sat unused at labs around the country. Stanford was one of them. Researchers at the world-renowned university had a working test by February, based on protocols published by the World Health Organization.... By early March, after federal officials finally announced changes to expand testing, it was too late. With the early lapses, containment was no longer an option. The tool kit of epidemiology would shift — lockdowns, social disruption, intensive medical treatment — in hopes of mitigating the harm.
Now, the United States has more than 100,000 coronavirus cases, the most of any country in the world... And still, many Americans sickened by the virus cannot get tested... In tacit acknowledgment of the shortage, Mr. Trump asked South Korea's president on Monday to send as many test kits as possible from the 100,000 produced there daily, more than the country needs. Public health experts reacted positively to the increased capacity. But having the ability to diagnose the disease three months after it was first disclosed by China does little to address why the United States was unable to do so sooner, when it might have helped reduce the toll of the pandemic.
https://www.patreon.com/posts/simulating-early-35307720
Simulating an Epidemic (early view)
Hey Everyone,
This is a video (draft) using SIR models to simulate an epidemic and tweak various parameters controlling the small society of wandering dots it applies to.
I'll be doing a properly focused comb through to check for errors tonight, with the plan to publish tomorrow if all looks well. If you spot anything do let me know!
I'll be doing a properly focused comb through to check for errors tonight, with the plan to publish tomorrow if all looks well. If you spot anything do let me know!
Once it's live, I'd, of course, be grateful if you found it valuable enough to share. In the meantime, I'll jump right back into finalizing part 2 of "probabilities of probabilities".
-Grant
https://science.slashdot.org/story/20/03/23/1943240/fossil-hunters-find-evidence-of-555-million-year-old-human-relative
Fossil Hunters Find Evidence of 555 Million-Year-Old Human Relative (theguardian.com)
It might not show much of a family resemblance but fossil hunters say a newly discovered creature, that looks like a teardrop-shaped jellybean and is about half the size of a grain of rice, is an early relative of humans and a vast array of other animals. From a report:The team discovered the fossils in rocks in the outback of South Australia that are thought to be at least 555 million years old. The researchers say the diminutive creatures are one of the earliest examples of a bilateral organism -- animals with features including a front and a back, a plane of symmetry that results in a left and a right side, and often a gut that opens at each end. Humans, pigs, spiders and butterflies are all bilaterians, but creatures such as jellyfish are not. Dr Scott Evans, of the Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History and a co-author of the research, said: "The major finding of the paper is that this is possibly the oldest bilaterian yet recognised in the fossil record. "Because humans are bilaterians, we can say that this was a very early relative and possibly one of the first on the diverse bilaterian tree of life."
Writing in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Scott and colleagues in the US and Australia report how they made their discovery in sandstone at sites including fossil-rich Nilpena. They say careful analysis ruled out the possibility that the fossils were actually formed by the action of currents or from microbial mats. The animal has been named Ikaria wariootia in reference to an Indigenous term for Wilpena Pound, a nearby landmark, and the Warioota Creek that is close to the sites of the find.
Writing in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Scott and colleagues in the US and Australia report how they made their discovery in sandstone at sites including fossil-rich Nilpena. They say careful analysis ruled out the possibility that the fossils were actually formed by the action of currents or from microbial mats. The animal has been named Ikaria wariootia in reference to an Indigenous term for Wilpena Pound, a nearby landmark, and the Warioota Creek that is close to the sites of the find.
Coronavirus Cases Have Dropped Sharply In South Korea. What's Its Secret? (sciencemag.org)
South Korea "has emerged as a sign of hope and a model to emulate," reported Nature earlier on Tuesday. "The country of 50 million appears to have greatly slowed its epidemic; it reported only 74 new cases today, down from 909 at its peak on 29 February."And it has done so without locking down entire cities or taking some of the other authoritarian measures that helped China bring its epidemic under control. "South Korea is a democratic republic, we feel a lockdown is not a reasonable choice," says Kim Woo-Joo, an infectious disease specialist at Korea University. South Korea's success may hold lessons for other countries — and also a warning: Even after driving case numbers down, the country is braced for a resurgence.
Behind its success so far has been the most expansive and well-organized testing program in the world, combined with extensive efforts to isolate infected people and trace and quarantine their contacts. South Korea has tested more than 270,000 people, which amounts to more than 5200 tests per million inhabitants — more than any other country except tiny Bahrain, according to the Worldometer website. The United States has so far carried out 74 tests per 1 million inhabitants, data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show. South Korea's experience shows that "diagnostic capacity at scale is key to epidemic control," says Raina MacIntyre, an emerging infectious disease scholar at the University of New South Wales, Sydney. "Contact tracing is also very influential in epidemic control, as is case isolation," she says...
Legislation enacted since [2015] gave the government authority to collect mobile phone, credit card, and other data from those who test positive to reconstruct their recent whereabouts. That information, stripped of personal identifiers, is shared on social media apps that allow others to determine whether they may have crossed paths with an infected person... There are 43 drive-through testing stations nationwide, a concept now copied in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. In the first week of March, the Ministry of the Interior also rolled out a smartphone app that can track the quarantined and collect data on symptoms.
"We hope our experience will help other countries control this COVID-19 outbreak," Kim tells Nature. And Reuters reports that in the five days since the article was published, South Korea has still kept new infections around a low 100 or less each day -- for 12 consecutive days -- compared with the peak of 909 new cases reported on February 29.
Reuters adds that though South Korea has experienced 8,961 cases, on Monday it reported its lowest daily number yet for new cases -- 64. And on the same day, "257 patients were released from hospitals where they had been isolated for treatment, the KCDC said.
"South Korea posted more recoveries than new infections on March 13 for the first time since its first case was confirmed on January 20."
Behind its success so far has been the most expansive and well-organized testing program in the world, combined with extensive efforts to isolate infected people and trace and quarantine their contacts. South Korea has tested more than 270,000 people, which amounts to more than 5200 tests per million inhabitants — more than any other country except tiny Bahrain, according to the Worldometer website. The United States has so far carried out 74 tests per 1 million inhabitants, data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show. South Korea's experience shows that "diagnostic capacity at scale is key to epidemic control," says Raina MacIntyre, an emerging infectious disease scholar at the University of New South Wales, Sydney. "Contact tracing is also very influential in epidemic control, as is case isolation," she says...
Legislation enacted since [2015] gave the government authority to collect mobile phone, credit card, and other data from those who test positive to reconstruct their recent whereabouts. That information, stripped of personal identifiers, is shared on social media apps that allow others to determine whether they may have crossed paths with an infected person... There are 43 drive-through testing stations nationwide, a concept now copied in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. In the first week of March, the Ministry of the Interior also rolled out a smartphone app that can track the quarantined and collect data on symptoms.
"We hope our experience will help other countries control this COVID-19 outbreak," Kim tells Nature. And Reuters reports that in the five days since the article was published, South Korea has still kept new infections around a low 100 or less each day -- for 12 consecutive days -- compared with the peak of 909 new cases reported on February 29.
Reuters adds that though South Korea has experienced 8,961 cases, on Monday it reported its lowest daily number yet for new cases -- 64. And on the same day, "257 patients were released from hospitals where they had been isolated for treatment, the KCDC said.
"South Korea posted more recoveries than new infections on March 13 for the first time since its first case was confirmed on January 20."
is a 'Debt Jubilee' The Only Way to Avoid a Depression? (washingtonpost.com)
The Washington Post just ran an interesting op-ed from a research professor of economics at the University of Missouri:Massive social distancing, with its accompanying job losses, stock dives and huge bailouts to corporations, raises the threat of a depression. But it doesn't have to be this way. History offers us another alternative in such situations: a debt jubilee. This slate-cleaning, balance-restoring step recognizes the fundamental truth that when debts grow too large to be paid without reducing debtors to poverty, the way to hold society together and restore balance is simply to cancel the bad debts...
The U.S. economy has polarized sharply since the 2008 crash. For far too many, their debts leave little income available for consumer spending or spending in the national interest. In a crashing economy, any demand that newly massive debts be paid to a financial class that has already absorbed most of the wealth gained since 2008 will only split our society further.... The way to restore normalcy today is a debt write-down. The debts in deepest arrears and most likely to default are student debts, medical debts, general consumer debts and purely speculative debts. They block spending on goods and services, shrinking the "real" economy. A write-down would be pragmatic, not merely moral sympathy with the less affluent.
In fact, it could create what the Germans called an "Economic Miracle" -- their own modern debt jubilee in 1948, the currency reform administered by the Allied Powers. When the Deutsche Mark was introduced, replacing the Reichsmark, 90 percent of government and private debt was wiped out. Germany emerged as an almost debt-free country, with low costs of production that jump-started its modern economy...
In the past, the politically powerful financial sector has blocked a write-down. Until now, the basic ethic of most of us has been that debts must be repaid. But it is time to recognize that most debts now cannot be paid -- through no real fault of the debtors in the face of today's economic disaster.
The U.S. economy has polarized sharply since the 2008 crash. For far too many, their debts leave little income available for consumer spending or spending in the national interest. In a crashing economy, any demand that newly massive debts be paid to a financial class that has already absorbed most of the wealth gained since 2008 will only split our society further.... The way to restore normalcy today is a debt write-down. The debts in deepest arrears and most likely to default are student debts, medical debts, general consumer debts and purely speculative debts. They block spending on goods and services, shrinking the "real" economy. A write-down would be pragmatic, not merely moral sympathy with the less affluent.
In fact, it could create what the Germans called an "Economic Miracle" -- their own modern debt jubilee in 1948, the currency reform administered by the Allied Powers. When the Deutsche Mark was introduced, replacing the Reichsmark, 90 percent of government and private debt was wiped out. Germany emerged as an almost debt-free country, with low costs of production that jump-started its modern economy...
In the past, the politically powerful financial sector has blocked a write-down. Until now, the basic ethic of most of us has been that debts must be repaid. But it is time to recognize that most debts now cannot be paid -- through no real fault of the debtors in the face of today's economic disaster.
#SayGoodbyeToAMovie Ferris Bueller's Day In! pic.twitter.com/S6d3LdEZA1— James Bryant (@TheOfficialJaba) March 29, 2020
So this guy calls me a communist because I'm criticizing the president. The fact that I can and am not in jail (knock on wood) is a fundamental part of a democracy. pic.twitter.com/dCy1B1rwo3— Ann Telnaes (@AnnTelnaes) March 29, 2020
One step at a time... pic.twitter.com/pefZc1gxJu— Nnedi Okorafor, PhD (@Nnedi) March 29, 2020
Mass hysteria
Can a real pandemic (such as COVID-19) turn into mass hysteria?
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Can a real pandemic such as COVID-19 turn into mass hysteria? Also known as epidemic hysteria, mass hysteria is a constellation of symptoms suggestive of organic illness but without an identifiable cause. It occurs within a group of people who share beliefs related to those symptoms, and has been described as a "social phenomenon involving otherwise healthy people." Mass hysteria is quite similar to the Mandela Effect in that you unwittingly trick your brain into believing something that isn't real.
However, in the case of mass hysteria surrounding very real infections or viruses, we can convince ourselves we have the symptoms of the disease or that the disease is more deadly than it really is. A study conducted at the University of Michigan proven that H1N1 (Swine Flu) led to mass hysteria in 2008, and there have been similar reactions in 2020 to the coronavirus outbreak. So how do we avoid reaching the same level of panic?
Experts recommended only sharing information about COVID-19 that you receive directly from trusted sources like WHO (World Health Organization) or the CDC (Center for Disease Control). Also, resist panic-purchasing and follow the preparedness guidelines offered by the CDC. Stay calm, be vigilant, take care, and most importantly, stay logical.
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- Bloggery committed by chris tower - 2004.01 - 10:10
- Days ago = 1733 days ago
- New note - On 1807.06, I ceased daily transmission of my Hey Mom feature after three years of daily conversations. I plan to continue Hey Mom posts at least twice per week but will continue to post the days since ("Days Ago") count on my blog each day. The blog entry numbering in the title has changed to reflect total Sense of Doubt posts since I began the blog on 0705.04, which include Hey Mom posts, Daily Bowie posts, and Sense of Doubt posts. Hey Mom posts will still be numbered sequentially. New Hey Mom posts will use the same format as all the other Hey Mom posts; all other posts will feature this format seen here.
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