A Sense of Doubt blog post #1880 - Covid-19 overdiagnosed? WRONG and that 5G nonsense - and that thing about MASKS Rebecca Watson
If you have been following my blog, and according to stats I had 223 views on April 8th (THANK YOU), if you're following, then you know that I have become very enamored of Rebecca Watson, so much so that I sponsored her on Patreon. She's making videos filled with insightful analysis right now.
Watson founded Skepchick (linked below) to basically feed people like me with the kind of content we love. :-)
And I love the name. Skepticism is a good thing.
So due to being enamored expect more Rebecca Watson content in posts, I already have one planned, as the stuff is very good.
Today's content (both video and transcript) considers the argument that health professionals COVID-19 are over-diagnosing the disease to inflate numbers (ridiculous!) when if anything there's still an UNDER-diagnosing because of inadequate testing and improper isolation by the population.
The second feature (both video and transcript) concerns the "dangers" of 5G technology and some new hysteria about it, which is patently absurd and Watson dismisses with incisive humor.
And now a third feature on whether the CDC lied about masks (it didn't),
Here we go.
https://skepchick.org/
https://www.patreon.com/rebecca
Skepchick was founded by Rebecca Watson in 2005 to discuss science and skepticism from a woman’s perspective. Over the years, it’s grown to be a home to dozens of writers who tackle those issues as well as progressive politics, feminism, and social justice.
About Rebecca Watson
Rebecca is a writer, speaker, YouTube personality, and unrepentant science nerd. In addition to founding and continuing to run Skepchick, she hosts Quiz-o-Tron, a monthly science-themed quiz show and podcast that pits comedians against nerds. There is an asteroid named in her honor.
Here's my recent posts of Rebecca's videos.A Sense of Doubt blog post #1843 - Myths, Pseudoscience, Racism, and do not drink bleach
A Sense of Doubt blog post #1873 - How to Spot Bad Science about COVID-19: Rebecca Watson
And here's the new stuff:
Rebecca Watson's new video: "Conservatives Think COVID-19 is Over-diagnosed (They're Probably Wrong)"
Transcript:
I’m always interested to see the lengths science and reality deniers will go to maintain their delusions. For instance, apocalyptic cults that believe with all their hearts that the end times will come on a specific date and time. When that date and time passes, you’d think that the cult would be over. But no! They just decide that their prophet was speaking metaphorically when he said he’d be back within their lifetime, or whatever. Because when you build your entire identity around a particular belief, most humans can’t just give that belief up in the face of irrefutable facts. So, they change the facts to fit their belief, easing their poor troubled mind.
Anyway, that’s been happening with COVID-19. Back in January, the official word from conservatives was, for some reason, that it’s no big deal, it would have the exact same impact on the US as our annual influenza, and we should just ignore it. They stuck with that even as the virus spread like wildfire from China to other Asian countries and to Europe, where it absolutely destroyed Italy. They stuck with that as we got our first cases in the US, trusting President Trump and Fox News when they told us that these cases would quickly disappear and that governors like my own, Gavin Newsome, were overreacting by listening to epidemiologists and ordering shelter in place. I heard many reasons why the US would not be like Italy: our population is younger, more spread out, we have a better healthcare system, etc etc.
Well, it’s been a few weeks and the evidence is overwhelming that COVID-19 is a Very Big Deal. The US now has twice as many confirmed cases as Italy. More than 4,500 Americans have died. We are nowhere near the apex. States like California sheltering in place managed to help the numbers tremendously, so we won’t see the worst case scenario of millions dead, thanks to the fact that in a pandemic that rises exponentially, small changes (like only one state quarantining while others persist with everyday life) can have big effects. But despite that, even the Trump administration is now hoping we “only” lose upwards of 240,000 people. Last year’s flu season, for comparison, took 34,000 people.
To me, this has always been a very obvious big deal, because I trust epidemiologists to come to a sensible consensus. I put science above my ideology. For instance, if you were to ask me if I would ever want my government telling me I couldn’t go outside, I would say “fuck you I do what I want.” Especially Trump! I already think the man is a fascist, so his administration controlling my daily movements is positively anathema to me. But in this case, I know that the scientists are right. Staying home is right. I will swallow my feelings about the government and do what they say.
But for the conservatives who have been distrustful of the scientists for two months, it’s not so easy. They’ve invested a lot into the idea that this virus isn’t a big deal, so I decided to see how they’re reacting in the face of what I feel is incontrovertible evidence they’re wrong.
What I discovered is that commentators like Brit Hume are amplifying a claim that people who doctors say are dying of COVID-19 are actually dying of other things, but they happened to test positive for COVID-19 and so they become part of the statistic, inflating the actual number of people dying. So for instance, if you have COVID-19 and you get in a car accident and die on the way to the hospitall, you’d be considered a COVID-19 death.
Let’s unpack that a bit. The claim comes from a random guy on Twitter named Adam Townsend who lists a few points to back up this idea: first, one doctor in Germany who wrote a letter questioning whether or not too many Germans were considered to have died of COVID-19, with no evidence to support the idea.
Second, John Ionaidis, well-known for publicizing the replication crisis in science, wrote an article saying we don’t have enough information to make informed decisions on shutting down the economy, which is true. We don’t have enough information because the US didn’t react early enough and isn’t testing enough people, so we’re forced to take drastic measures. Nothing he says offers any evidence that COVID-19 is being overly blamed for deaths.
Next he mentions a French study without linking to anything, so I can’t comment on it. Next he links to a NY Times opinion piece saying that we shouldn’t shut down the economy to stop the virus. Not related to the point at all.
Next he cites Italy’s Professor Walter Ricciardi, stating that the Professor claimed “only 12% of the test-positive deceased in Italy considered the coronavirus as a causal factor, which corresponds to a few dozen people per day. The normal all-cause mortality in Italy is around 1800 people per day.” If you click the link, you’ll find that he’s obfuscating. Ricciardi said that 12% of COVID-19 deaths showed “direct causality,” meaning that there is undeniable proof the patient died of COVID-19. In the other cases, and I quote from the article, “This does not mean that Covid-19 did not contribute to a patient's death, rather it demonstrates that Italy's fatality toll has surged as a large proportion of patients have underlying health conditions.” These co-morbidities are things that half of all Americans have: cardiovascular disease, diabetes, asthma. Diseases that the majority of us are living long, happy lives with. The people who count as COVID-19 deaths are counted that way because if it weren’t for COVID-19, they would still be alive today. That’s how diseases work. That’s how they kill people. People don’t always just die of, say, “cancer.” They die because their immune system is taxed and something else gets in, or because some particular organ fails, or because some infection takes over that they can’t fight.
Townsend’s next tweet gives up the game: “Experts have already explained situation in Italy has less to do w/corona virus than with local risk factors = extreme air pollution, mass panic, collapsed health system, curfew itself, median age of deceased is around 80 years, 99% had previous illnesses”
Yes! Exactly what we’ve been saying! The virus is deadly to people at high risk, but it becomes even deadlier if you don’t flatten the curve enough to make sure the healthcare system stays operational. Because once you overwhelm your hospitals with COVID-19 cases, suddenly people with other conditions can’t get the care they need and they die.
There’s simply no evidence that doctors are failing to do their jobs and just willy-nilly labeling anyone who dies with COVID-19 as being a death caused by that. In fact, here in California a teenager was initially thought to have died from the virus, but doctors took the time to confirm what happened and publicly announced that they were wrong and that he had died from other causes. That’s how science works -- the evidence changes the outcome, and as we get more data we can get a more accurate picture of how the world is.
The complete lack of preparedness and testing here in the US impedes that to the point that if anything, COVID-19 may be underdiagnosed and it may have caused many more deaths than known. How many people were unable to get tested, unable to afford to go to the hospital, and died at home? How many people even died in the hospital before testing was widespread? My fellow Skepchick writer Jamie Bernstein pointed out that a nursing home had 26 deaths in a month, compared to their usual rate of 3-7 deaths. Only half of the deceased were tested for COVID-19, so those are the only ones that went into the statistics. What about the other 13? We just don’t know.
That’s why we won’t actually know the true mortality of COVID-19 for another few years. You can’t just look at the death certificates and come up with a number, which is what we’re doing now because that’s pretty much all you can do in the midst of a pandemic. I actually tried to get the total number of all-cause deaths for various states for March of 2020 but that data is very hard to access, as it should be because we really don’t need more armchair epidemiologists making our lives miserable. But one thing actual scientists can do in the future is look at, for instance, how many people died in New York in March of 2017, 2018, and 2019 and compare it to March of 2020. Then we’ll know the impact COVID-19 had.
Just kidding! That still wouldn’t tell us, because there are always mitigating factors. Did fewer people die of car accidents because fewer people are out driving? Did more people die while sheltering in place due to common accidents around the home? Did fewer people die because they were surrounded by family who could take care of them? Did more people die because of an increase in domestic violence?
This is why we have people study their whole damn lives to crunch this data. And this is why you should trust them instead of some, uh, “extreme salesman” Gish Galloping on Twitter.
Transcript:
Hey, do you guys mind if I talk a little about coronavirus? I mean I have to, right? Okay, okay, if you insist! Look, viruses are invisible. You what else is invisible? Fairies. How many people have ever seen a fairy? That’s right, I don’t see any hands up. In every pandemic from the last 150 years, there were fairies involved. In July of 1917 the world first saw the photos of the Cottingly fairies. By January of 1918 the SPANISH FLU began in that legendary region of Spain known as Fort Riley, Kansas. I love their Riojas. Anyway, 50 million people died.
March of 1956, the Fairey Delta 2 becomes the first aircraft to fly more than 1,000 miles per hour. By 1957 the Asian H2N2 influenza killed 2 million people.
In 1968 the H3N2 Hong Kong Influenza killed a million people. What occurred just two years prior? I hardly think I even need to say it but yeah, MOTHMAN, a large WINGED BEAST appeared in West Virginia to warn of impending disaster.
And of course, in 2019 we all remember that a winged “angel” was seen floating over Brazil. By the end of that year? CORONAVIRUS.
I don’t know how much more obvious I can make it for you: these are all fairies, and all of them preceded deadly global pandemics. We are at war and we don’t even know it. We must destroy the fairy people.
If you think that theory is stupid, maybe you’d prefer this one from “Dr. Thomas Cowan, MD.” You know when a person includes both “Dr.” and “MD” in their title, they’re definitely worth listening to. Especially when they’re speaking at an event as illustrious as the Health And Human Rights Summit in Tucson, Arizona, which apparently was held in person on March 12 despite the fact that, you know, there was a global pandemic happening. Cowan spoke alongside other such luminaries as Dr. Andrew Wakefield, who apparently is still going by “Dr.” despite being completely discredited and barred from practicing medicine due to gross ethics violations that led to way too many people believing that vaccines cause autism. You know, vaccines? The thing we’re all desperately hoping doctors develop to save us from coronavirus? So yeah, it’s great to see Wakefield is still getting booked.
But back to Dr. Thomas Cowan, M.D. His lecture is on YouTube and despite the fact that YouTube has demonetized most of my videos for just mentioning coronavirus, and despite their promise to stop the spread of misinformation on their platform, this video has 677,000 views and has spawned a fun new(-ish) conspiracy theory: that coronavirus comes from 5G wireless.
Cowan, and his fellow travelers like David Icke (who literally believes that the world is run by actual shape-shifting reptiles), believe that pandemics correlate to various upgrades in the world’s electrical grid, like 3G, 4G, 5G, and for the Spanish flu, radio waves. Yes, radio waves, which apparently emerged in 1916? I have no idea where they got that number but the first radio program was broadcast in 1906, and Marconi got his patent for the telegraph in 1896, but sure Jan, whatever you say.
So really, there isn’t even a correlation but even if there was? Say it with me friends: correlation does not equal causation. Fairies aren’t causing pandemics and neither are radio waves. Like I said in a video back in 2016, and again in 2018, cell phone networks also don’t cause cancer. There is no good evidence to support the idea that nonionizing radiation does anything to the human body other than maybe cause a little heat, which is just one reason why you shouldn’t press your naked body up to a cell phone tower I guess.
That’s not to say that 5G isn’t without its downsides. For one, NASA and NOAA point out that the launch of a new network will broadcast in a frequency too close to that of their satellites, which might screw up weather reporting. And really, they don’t need more people complaining about inaccurate weather reports. These are the people who already have to hear “Uh what about global warming” every time it snows in Minnesota.
Another problem with 5G is the lack of cybersecurity, or as it’s known in 2020, “security.” As the US races to compete with China to set up a decent 5G network, there are experts who worry that we are forgetting to make it so that even technologically illiterate people can access the frequent software updates that this will require without compromising their privacy. 5G is going to be decentralized and all software-based, which leaves it prime for hackers to gain access to our data. We need the government to work with businesses to make sure that the network we build isn’t just “first,” but also safe.
“Safe” for our data, that is. Not our lungs. Because I’m sorry, as scary as it is, this virus didn’t come from radio waves. It came from nature, and it’s having a devastating effect on humanity because of a lack of preparedness because we elected a bunch of morons. Like, absolute piece of shit moronic assholes. The key to preventing this in the future is not to make up new conspiracy theories but to listen to experts, and put people in charge who will listen to experts. In other words, stay home, wash your hands, and if you can do so safely? Vote.
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edit 2005.13 - I have never made such an edit before, but I have to move one of Rebecca Watson's content to this post from another because I am using the previous post for class, and though I am fine with being anti-Trump, I do not need to introduce the potential antagonism of students who may not be, not right now, not during the pandemic. Plus, the video I am moving here does not promote my academic agenda quite the way I want in getting them to think critically. But do not misunderstand the move. I love the video and Rebecca Watson because both are brilliant.
Transcript:
Hey friends, welcome to week 4 (ish?) of quarantine -- for me, at least, because I live in a city that took COVID-19 seriously way back when it was just a baby epidemic. And before that, I was quarantining anyway because it’s just my natural way of life and I will thank you to stop judging me.
This week’s big COVID-19 news is that the CDC has changed their messaging from “don’t buy masks, you don’t need them” to “oh actually everyone should probably be wearing masks.” I saw this over on Reddit’s r/coronavirus, where I get all my pandemic-related news. (This is a joke. Do not use Reddit as your news service.) The inhabitants there are NOT pleased, saying that this is “plainly criminal” behavior (475 upvotes), they “misled the public” (842 upvotes) ,and the CDC lied about the effectiveness of masks because “simply because they did not have enough for general public” (400 upvotes).
Look, these are tough times for everybody and I, too, have a lot of frustration about the way various world governments, especially the United States, completely bungled this. Like I said in my last video about N-95 masks, the reason why there is a shortage is because our government failed to listen to epidemiologists who warned them that this was going to happen. Not only did they fail to stock up on masks ahead of time, but Trump cut the council in charge of pandemics in half.
So can we blame that on the CDC? I mean obviously there’s a lot of interconnectedness and plenty of fuck-ups to go around, but as I said in that other video, Trump specifically rearranged things so that the CDC was no longer in charge of our country’s emergency stash of masks and other medical equipment. They used to be, but in 2018 Trump put all that under the purview of the Assistant Secretary of Preparedness and Response at the Department of Health and Human Services.
So did the CDC lie to the public in order to stop people from hoarding those masks? There is absolutely no evidence for that, and plenty of evidence against it. As I stated before, average consumers simply can’t hoard so many masks that they’d make a dent in our hospitals’ stash. That problem comes from the suppliers -- they need to produce more masks because our hospitals are going through them so quickly.
Second of all, the advice is still “you probably don’t need an N-95 mask.” As I’ve said repeatedly, in pretty much every video about this topic, N-95 masks are great if you are in close contact with a sick person. For everyone else? Just stay home. Avoid crowds. Avoid enclosed spaces. Order your groceries to be picked up. Stay home and read your Bible instead of going to church. Wanna go for a walk and you’re scared someone will breathe on you? An N-95 is overkill. A fabric mask is fine. If the CDC didn’t want a run on N-95 masks, they could have just told the public “leave those for medical professionals, we recommend everyone else wear a fabric mask.” The primary mode of transmission, as best as scientists can tell, is touching objects with the virus on it and then touching your face, or being in close contact with someone to the point that the droplets that contain the virus can actually blast into your face. The original advice still stands: avoid people. Wash your hands. And if you absolutely cannot avoid people, a mask might help reduce the spread so long as you use it properly.
What’s properly mean? Well, the better the fit the better it works. A good mask should not have gaps around your nose and mouth, and the thicker material the less shit can get through it. You can make a fabric mask out of a tshirt or a bandana if you want. Once it’s fit onto your face, don’t touch it. The point is that the mask stops viral globules, which means that if it’s working, the outside is covered in death. Don’t wear it for more than a few hours, and when you’re done remove it without touching the outside (and wash your hands after to be safe). Wash it before you wear it again. And don’t let the mask give you a false sense of security -- a flimsy physical barrier provides some protection, but not a lot. That means you as an individual might still get sick, but if everyone is wearing one then the result could be dramatic. You are still absolutely better off sheltering in place, avoiding people, and washing your hands.
Okay, so if I don’t believe the CDC was purposely lying to us to stop a run on masks, why are they only just now thinking of changing their advice? Simple: because there’s more data now. This is how science works. This pandemic moved very quickly -- yes, there’s more our government could have done to prepare, and more they should still currently be doing, but scientists have been working as quickly as they can to separate fact from fiction, figuring out how this particular virus transmits and how we can best protect ourselves. And they have been doing it all with seriously incomplete data, thanks to our shitty governments. China tried to cover things up. The US isn’t testing the number of people they should be testing. All that led to scientists missing a lot of key data, including the fact that a huge number of carriers are asymptomatic, meaning they have no symptoms and don’t even realize they have it. If symptoms show up early in a disease’s lifespan, people who are feeling ill can self-isolate and others can avoid them. But if people have no idea they’re sick and they’re just wandering around because, say, their government hasn’t told their employers they have to stay home, well that changes things. Now, people who aren’t feeling sick, and don’t know anyone who is feeling sick, might be out there spreading disease. So, if everyone was wearing some kind of mask with some type of protection regardless of whether they feel sick, you have a chance to reduce the spread.
Of course, you can also reduce the spread by doing what scientists originally suggested and which they still suggest is the best way to stop the spread: STAY HOME. I know, it feels silly to stay cooped up at home when you aren’t sick. That’s the point. In a pandemic, doing the right thing feels like an overreaction. If you do the wrong thing, you’ll look back and see you didn’t do enough.
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- Bloggery committed by chris tower - 2004.11 - 10:10
- Days ago = 1743 days ago
- New note - On 1807.06, I ceased daily transmission of my Hey Mom feature after three years of daily conversations. I plan to continue Hey Mom posts at least twice per week but will continue to post the days since ("Days Ago") count on my blog each day. The blog entry numbering in the title has changed to reflect total Sense of Doubt posts since I began the blog on 0705.04, which include Hey Mom posts, Daily Bowie posts, and Sense of Doubt posts. Hey Mom posts will still be numbered sequentially. New Hey Mom posts will use the same format as all the other Hey Mom posts; all other posts will feature this format seen here.
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