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Saturday, June 29, 2024

A Sense of Doubt blog post #3420 - Post-Presidential debate: Fact Check, Ageism, and What's Next


A Sense of Doubt blog post #3420 - Post-Presidential debate: Fact Check, Ageism, and What's Next

The Jon Stewart segment shared below ALMOST makes me feel better about Biden's miserable and agonizingly painful performance.

Trump lied the entire time. He said almost NOTHING true. And most of what he said lacked any factual material at all. Everything he did was the best, people say it's the best, 19 people claimed debunked that.... (the last the closest to a statistical fact that he had).

But Biden was painful to watch. The Democrats want to claim that he just had a bad night, that debating is not the same as governing, that he knows what he's doing, that he's the right person for the job. These things may be true in part or in all.

And I am okay with President Kamala Harris. That's fine with me.

And I don't want to say anyone but Trump because there's lots of hateful or stupid wanks who would be as bad or worse.

So, just, NOT TRUMP.

But after the debate, my fear that Biden cannot and will not beat Trump was stoked to eleven.

And the nonsense that Dems spout that people will not make up their minds based on this debate, that people will forget, that Biden and the team have four months to change people's minds is not a good assurance. In fact, it's nonsense.

People will remember.

People have made up their minds.

Because it's not about having a "bad night," it's about confirming that he's too old for the job in the minds of voters. Whether he is too old, whether he can do the job for four more years is irrelevant. Voters will remember what they saw. And they saw an old man trying really hard to keep up with sociopathic narcissist and generally failing.

Doesn't matter that Trump basically said nothing that was true.

People may vote for him because he seemed more awake and more cognitively together to them.

Not to me. I think he's mentally ill and clearly believes his own bullshit.

I hope Trump agrees to debate again, but why would he? I have a feeling that he won't unless Biden really hammers away at the "he's afraid to debate me again."

I am very, very worried that Trump is going to win.

I do think that Biden should step aside, though only if the party does not feel that this will make things worse. It could be the measure that will actually beat Trump.

But I am all but positive that it won't happen.

Brace yourself for the end of democracy (which was gone anyway) and for an autocracy like this country has never seen.


Jon Stewart's post-debate Daily Show take: 'This cannot be real life...We're America!'

A live episode of the Comedy Central show followed a presidential debate between President Biden and former President Trump.


https://ew.com/jon-stewart-daily-show-reaction-to-cnn-presidential-debate-8668609

Jon Stewart was in shock following Thursday's debate between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump on CNN.

"This cannot be real life," he said on a live edition of The Daily Show that followed. "It just can't. We're America!"

Stewart echoed the comments of much of the media when he said that Biden underperformed and Trump repeatedly made false statements. The comedian has long criticized both candidates for running for office at their advanced age. Biden is 81, and Trump is 78.






Jun 27, 2024  #JonStewart #DailyShow #Debate
Jon Stewart goes live after CNN's presidential debate to unpack Biden's senior moments and Trump's blatant lies. #DailyShow #JonStewart #Debate


FACT CHECKS

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/06/27/us/biden-trump-debate-fact-check



Linda Qiu
Fact-check Reporter

“He wants to raise your taxes by four times.”

— Former President Donald J. Trump

False.

Many elements of the 2017 tax cut that Mr. Trump signed into law will expire in 2025, and Mr. Biden has proposed some tax increases on high-income earners and corporations. But this does not amount to a quadrupling of taxes.



“But Social Security, he’s destroying it because millions of people are pouring into our country and they are putting them onto Social Security.”

— Former President Donald J. Trump

False.

Mr. Trump has this backward. Undocumented workers often pay taxes that help fund Social Security. But, as the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office once noted, “most unauthorized immigrants are prohibited from receiving many of the benefits that the federal government provides through Social Security and such need-based programs as food stamps, Medicaid (other than emergency services) and Temporary Assistance for Needy Families.”


Fact-check Reporter

“Nancy Pelosi, if you just watched the news from two days ago on tape to her daughter who’s a documentary filmmaker, or they say what she’s saying, ‘Oh, no, it’s my responsibility. I was responsible for this.’ Because I offered them 10,000 soldiers are National Guard. And she turned them down.”

— Former President Donald J. Trump

This is misleading.

Mr. Trump is distorting what Representative Nancy Pelosi, then the House speaker, said. Ms. Pelosi did not admit to turning down National Guard troops. She does not have such authority.



“The Paris accord was going to cost us $1 trillion and China, nothing, and Russia, nothing, and India, nothing.”

— Former President Donald J. Trump

This is misleading.

Under the Paris agreement, a voluntary global climate accord, wealthier nations agreed to help poor countries most threatened by climate change. Under President Biden, the United States has pledged $11.4 billion annually by 2024 to assist vulnerable countries in developing clean energy and preparing for the consequences of climate change.

China also contributes to developing countries, albeit not through the U.N., but through a separate “South-South” cooperation fund. The United States, under the Biden administration, has been pressuring China to donate more.



Fact-check Reporter

“The only jobs he created are for illegal immigrants.”

— Former President Donald J. Trump

False.

Official estimates of employment do not support Mr. Trump’s statement. And estimates from various groups show that the population of unauthorized immigrants has grown in recent years, but not nearly enough to take all the jobs created under President Biden.


Investigative Reporter

“He gets paid by China.”

— Former President Donald J. Trump.

False.

Mr. Trump was referring to President Biden and appeared to be nodding to payments from a company called C.E.F.C. China Energy and its affiliates to entities associated with Mr. Biden’s son Hunter and his brother James.

No evidence has emerged that any portion of these payments, which started after Mr. Biden left the vice presidency, went to Joseph R. Biden Jr.

“They moved a high-ranking official, a D.O.J., into the Manhattan D.A.’s office to start that case.”

— Former President Donald J. Trump

False.

Mr. Trump regularly claims that a Justice Department official from the Biden administration was the driving force behind his recent criminal conviction in Manhattan. In fact, the investigation into Mr. Trump had begun years before that former Justice Department official even joined the Manhattan district attorney’s office.

The former official was one of several prosecutors to work on the case, which recently ended with Mr. Trump’s conviction on 34 felony charges of falsifying business records. But the district attorney, Alvin L. Bragg, was responsible for bringing the case.


That's just a few of them.

There's more.

Here's a similar but different set from the other paper...

MORE FACT CHECKING



At one point, Trump said grocery prices have "doubled, tripled, quadrupled!"
Grocery Prices have NOT doubled since Trump's term of office let alone Quadrupled. 

Look at this:

GROCERY PRICES 1950 - NOW
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SAF11

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/06/28/could-democrats-replace-biden-nominee/




Additionally, a Biden replacement would start with a disadvantage both financially and organizationally. Biden cannot simply transfer his campaign cash to a replacement. He can transfer it to a super PAC, but any candidate who takes over for him would have to start raising money quickly.

Elaine Kamarck, an expert on political primaries who has also served as a Democratic delegate multiple times, noted in an interview that there is a scenario, albeit unlikely, in which Biden refuses to step aside but a challenger emerges to try to convince his delegates to spurn him.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/06/28/david-ignatius-biden-trump-debate-age/


Thursday night had the sense of an ending. There was something Shakespearean about the gaunt, haunted face of Biden on stage squinting as if to see in a dwindling light, struggling for words even as the nobility of his purpose remained. I was reminded of a passage in “King Lear,” when Edgar advises his struggling father, the Duke of Gloucester, “Men must endure their going hence, even as their coming hither; Ripeness is all.”

But an ending is also a new beginning. That’s what Biden, with the wisdom of his age, can give to the country.


Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer walks onstage to address the crowd at the Michigan Democrats' midterms after-party in 2022. (Nick Hagen for The Washington Post)


2. Gretchen Whitmer



This is a name you’re likely to see plenty in the days ahead. The Michigan governor combines being an actually plausible alternative with looking almost ideal on paper.


She’s a female governor who hails from a crucial state (Democrats need to hold Midwestern swing states, given their problems in other swing states). She has won both of her races there by around 10 points. Polling this year has shown her approval rating in Michigan between 54 percent and 61 percent. And she’s more experienced and has more of a national profile than a lot of other rising-star Democratic governors, such as Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Maryland Gov. Wes Moore.

After Harris, she would quickly rise to the top.





https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/06/28/democrat-options-replace-biden/

1. Vice President Harris
2. Gretchen Whitmer
3. Pete Buttigieg
4. Josh Shapiro
5. Jared Polis
6. Gavin Newsom
7. Raphael G. Warnock
8. Michelle Obama
9. Amy Klobuchar
10. Andy Beshear



8. Michelle Obama

This is the fantasy option for Democrats — and we mean that in more than one way. She would seem to be the ideal alternative for many, but she also seems unlikely to run.

Obama is the most popular former first lady in America, dating back to Lady Bird Johnson, according to a late-2023 YouGov poll. She has also consistently been liked by a clear majority of Americans, which we can’t say for many political figures.

But she has professed basically no interest in running in her own right; going from that to waging a presidential campaign with just a few months to go is a huge stretch. We also learned this week about reported tensions between her and the Biden campaign.

AdvertisementStory continues below advertisement

It’s truly a break-glass-in-case-of-emergency option. And the glass appears to be shatterproof.




THE EDITORIAL BOARD

To Serve His Country, President Biden Should Leave the Race

The editorial board is a group of opinion journalists whose views are informed by expertise, research, debate and certain longstanding values. It is separate from the newsroom.


President Biden has repeatedly and rightfully described the stakes in this November’s presidential election as nothing less than the future of American democracy.

Donald Trump has proved himself to be a significant jeopardy to that democracy — an erratic and self-interested figure unworthy of the public trust. He systematically attempted to undermine the integrity of elections. His supporters have described, publicly, a 2025 agenda that would give him the power to carry out the most extreme of his promises and threats. If he is returned to office, he has vowed to be a different kind of president, unrestrained by the checks on power built into the American political system.

Mr. Biden has said that he is the candidate with the best chance of taking on this threat of tyranny and defeating it. His argument rests largely on the fact that he beat Mr. Trump in 2020. That is no longer a sufficient rationale for why Mr. Biden should be the Democratic nominee this year.

At Thursday’s debate, the president needed to convince the American public that he was equal to the formidable demands of the office he is seeking to hold for another term. Voters, however, cannot be expected to ignore what was instead plain to see: Mr. Biden is not the man he was four years ago.

The president appeared on Thursday night as the shadow of a great public servant. He struggled to explain what he would accomplish in a second term. He struggled to respond to Mr. Trump’s provocations. He struggled to hold Mr. Trump accountable for his lies, his failures and his chilling plans. More than once, he struggled to make it to the end of a sentence.

Mr. Biden has been an admirable president. Under his leadership, the nation has prospered and begun to address a range of long-term challenges, and the wounds ripped open by Mr. Trump have begun to heal. But the greatest public service Mr. Biden can now perform is to announce that he will not continue to run for re-election.

As it stands, the president is engaged in a reckless gamble. There are Democratic leaders better equipped to present clear, compelling and energetic alternatives to a second Trump presidency. There is no reason for the party to risk the stability and security of the country by forcing voters to choose between Mr. Trump’s deficiencies and those of Mr. Biden. It’s too big a bet to simply hope Americans will overlook or discount Mr. Biden’s age and infirmity that they see with their own eyes.

If the race comes down to a choice between Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden, the sitting president would be this board’s unequivocal pick. That is how much of a danger Mr. Trump poses. But given that very danger, the stakes for the country and the uneven abilities of Mr. Biden, the United States needs a stronger opponent to the presumptive Republican nominee. To make a call for a new Democratic nominee this late in a campaign is a decision not taken lightly, but it reflects the scale and seriousness of Mr. Trump’s challenge to the values and institutions of this country and the inadequacy of Mr. Biden to confront him.

Ending his candidacy would be against all of Mr. Biden’s personal and political instincts. He has picked himself up from tragedies and setbacks in the past and clearly believes he can do so again. Supporters of the president are already explaining away Thursday’s debate as one data point compared with three years of accomplishments. But the president’s performance cannot be written off as a bad night or blamed on a supposed cold, because it affirmed concerns that have been mounting for months or even years. Even when Mr. Biden tried to lay out his policy proposals, he stumbled. It cannot be outweighed by other public appearances because he has limited and carefully controlled his public appearances.

 

It should be remembered that Mr. Biden challenged Mr. Trump to this verbal duel. He set the rules, and he insisted on a date months earlier than any previous general election debate. He understood that he needed to address longstanding public concerns about his mental acuity and that he needed to do so as soon as possible.

The truth Mr. Biden needs to confront now is that he failed his own test.

In polls and interviews, voters say they are seeking fresh voices to take on Mr. Trump. And the consolation for Mr. Biden and his supporters is that there is still time to rally behind a different candidate. While Americans are conditioned to the long slog of multiyear presidential elections, in many democracies, campaigns are staged in the space of a few months.

It is a tragedy that Republicans themselves are not engaged in deeper soul-searching after Thursday’s debate. Mr. Trump’s own performance ought to be regarded as disqualifying. He lied brazenly and repeatedly about his own actions, his record as president and his opponent. He described plans that would harm the American economy, undermine civil liberties and fray America’s relationships with other nations. He refused to promise that he would accept defeat, returning instead to the kind of rhetoric that incited the Jan. 6 attack on Congress.

The Republican Party, however, has been co-opted by Mr. Trump’s ambitions. The burden rests on the Democratic Party to put the interests of the nation above the ambitions of a single man.

Democrats who have deferred to Mr. Biden must now find the courage to speak plain truths to the party’s leader. The confidants and aides who have encouraged the president’s candidacy and who sheltered him from unscripted appearances in public should recognize the damage to Mr. Biden’s standing and the unlikelihood that he can repair it.

Mr. Biden answered an urgent question on Thursday night. It was not the answer that he and his supporters were hoping for. But if the risk of a second Trump term is as great as he says it is — and we agree with him that the danger is enormous — then his dedication to this country leaves him and his party only one choice.

The clearest path for Democrats to defeat a candidate defined by his lies is to deal truthfully with the American public: acknowledge that Mr. Biden can’t continue his race, and create a process to select someone more capable to stand in his place to defeat Mr. Trump in November.

It is the best chance to protect the soul of the nation — the cause that drew Mr. Biden to run for the presidency in 2019 — from the malign warping of Mr. Trump. And it is the best service that Mr. Biden can provide to a country that he has nobly served for so long.

 

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- Bloggery committed by chris tower - 2406.29 - 10:10

- Days ago = 3284 days ago

- New note - On 1807.06, I ceased daily transmission of my Hey Mom feature after three years of daily conversations. I plan to continue Hey Mom posts at least twice per week but will continue to post the days since ("Days Ago") count on my blog each day. The blog entry numbering in the title has changed to reflect total Sense of Doubt posts since I began the blog on 0705.04, which include Hey Mom posts, Daily Bowie posts, and Sense of Doubt posts. Hey Mom posts will still be numbered sequentially. New Hey Mom posts will use the same format as all the other Hey Mom posts; all other posts will feature this format seen here.

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