A Sense of Doubt blog post #3795 - The Detroit Tigers - Title Contenders, Prospects to Trade, Colt Keith on a Tear
As I post this, the Detroit Tigers have the best record in all of Baseball by three games.
How real are good starts from Tigers
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/45224915/mlb-2025-surprises-playoff-contenders-tigers-cardinals-giants-guardians-athletics
Detroit Tigers (31-17)
Preseason playoff odds: 41.2%
Key stat: Last season, the Tigers hit 162 home runs in 162 games. This season, they hit 60 in their first 47 games, a pace of 207. The team OBP has improved from .300 (29th in the majors) to .333 (sixth). As a result, Detroit has increased its runs per game from 4.21 to 5.38.
Hot start: Former No. 1 picks Spencer Torkelson and Casey Mize both scuffled in 2024, with Torkelson finding himself demoted to Triple-A at one point and finishing with 10 home runs and 0.3 WAR, and Mize going 2-6 with a 4.49 ERA and 0.2 WAR. Torkelson already has 12 home runs and ranks among MLB's best in RBIs, while Mize is 6-1 with a 2.53 ERA.
Can he keep it going? Javier Baez was so bad in 2023 and 2024 that he likely would have been let go if he didn't still have three seasons left on his contract. However, not only is he hitting .291/.326/.485 in 2025, but he has moved to center field with Parker Meadows injured and looks like a natural out there.
Area of concern: Third base? Starting pitching depth? Really, the Tigers have shown no obvious weakness so far. Once Meadows returns, Baez can always move to third base if needed, keeping Zach McKinstry in a utility role. Sawyer Gipson-Long has started a rehab assignment, and the Double-A rotation is stacked if help is eventually needed in the rotation.
The question at this point isn't if the Tigers are for real, but rather if they have a chance to be the best team in Tigers history. The 1984 team holds the club record with 104 wins and had that famous 35-5 start on its way to a World Series title. The 2025 Tigers are on pace for 107 wins after 47 games. They've been extremely well-rounded with a surprisingly deep lineup, solid defense, Tarik Skubal leading a good rotation and a bullpen picking up where it left off from last year's out-of-nowhere trip to the postseason. Detroit has done all this with Matt Vierling and Meadows -- who were second and third among position players a year ago in WAR -- injured so far this season.
Mize has been a nice surprise as well, walking just nine batters in seven starts, and he should remain effective if he keeps doing that. With Skubal leading the way, the Tigers rank second to only the Philadelphia Phillies in strikeout rate among starting pitchers. The bullpen isn't quite as dominant in that department (17th in the majors), but that's also the easiest area to add to at the trade deadline if necessary.
If you want to nitpick, you could point to the lack of one consistent closer, as changeup specialist Tommy Kahnle, Will Vest and Brant Hurter have split duties with 12 saves between them. It's unconventional, but all three have been effective, and manager A.J. Hinch and pitching coach Chris Fetter have certainly shown over the past two seasons they know how to work a bullpen. While some of the Tigers' hitters can be expected to regress -- Baez, in particular -- getting Vierling and Meadows back will give Hinch all kinds of lineup flexibility to maximize matchups.
This probably isn't a 107-win team or even a 104-win team, but this could be Detroit's first 95-win team since 2011.
Verdict: Real
Detroit Tigers: A+
Tarik Skubal is obviously the headline act, but the Tigers are winning with impressive depth across the entire roster.
Javier Baez is putting together a remarkable comeback season after a couple of abysmal years and will become the first player to start an All-Star Game at both shortstop and in the outfield. Former No. 1 overall picks Casey Mize and Spencer Torkelson have put together their own comeback stories, while Riley Greene has matured into one of the game's top power hitters.
Given their deep well of prospects and contributors at the MLB level, no team is better positioned than the Tigers to add significant help at the trade deadline.
Tigers have everything working: winning in Detroit while developing talent in minors
Take a step back and consider the big picture.
Four Detroit Tigers are headed to the All-Star Game – and a couple more have a legitimate complaint that they aren’t going. Three Tigers prospects will play in the Futures Game, tying the Seattle Mariners for the most in baseball. Oh, and something else: The Tigers ended the holiday weekend with the best record in baseball.
That means the present is fantastic and the future looks just as promising. Yes, these are amazing times for the Tigers and it seems to get better every day across the organization. But dig a little deeper and you will find something fascinating: How everything is working together.
It’s everything. All of it working together.
So, let’s start with three Tigers prospects. Josue Briceño, Max Clark ad Kevin McGonigle have been promoted from High-A West Michigan to Double A Erie. They are expected to make their Erie debut at Harrisburg on Tuesday, July 8; and all three have been selected to play in the All-Star Futures Game on Saturday, July 10, in Atlanta.
Impressive, to say the least.
It’s fascinating how they are moving up together. Just like how Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene were promoted to Triple-A Toledo together in August 2021. There is a benefit of keeping talent together. Having them all soar together. And having them learn how to win together – West Michigan clinched the first-half title last month.
"They are great players − that's a given,” West Michigan manager Tony Cappuccilli told me in June. “People always ask, 'Oh, what's gonna happen when these guys move on to Erie?'
"I know I'm gonna miss the guys. I'll miss them in the clubhouse. Obviously writing their names in the lineup is nice, but the quality of character of the guys that we have here is amazing. Not only are they getting good players, but they are good people, and they want to win. They're not happy when they lose."
Now, think about something else. Think about how those three were acquired. Because that’s a story that should not be forgotten.
Some freaked out when the Tigers passed on Wyatt Langford with the third pick in the 2023 MLB Draft. Because Langford was more developed – more MLB-ready – having played at Florida. Langford made his MLB debut in 2024 after going No. 4 to the Texas Rangers. In his first 203 career games with the Rangers, he had 29 homers with .245 batting average and a 5.4 WAR. And yes, that supports those who thought the Tigers should have drafted him.
Instead, the Tigers took Clark at No. 3 and McGonigle at No. 37, two high school prospects. Yes, I contend, you have to consider them together. Because the Tigers got Clark under slot value (he signed for $7.6 million at a position in the draft with a $8.3 million value) and the Tigers were able to use the extra savings and take McGonigle over slot value (he signed at $2.8 million at a slot with a $2.3 million value).
On the other hand, the Rangers signed Langford signed over slot ($8 million) at a spot in the draft valued at $7.6 million.
In short, if the Tigers had drafted Langford, they wouldn’t have gotten McGonigle, who “might be might have the best hit tool in the minors and has been a double machine when healthy this season,” according to MLB Pipeline.
While it might make great sports radio to debate if you would rather have Langford helping right now on a team with World Series potential, it is also true that the Tigers' farm system is stacked with talent and positioned to sustain success over time because of a bunch of savvy moves. Like how they got both Clark and McGonigle.
Which brings us to Briceño, who is a prime example of how the Tigers are finding and developing players. Briceño was born in Maracay, Venezuela − Miguel Cabrera’s hometown – and the Tigers signed him for an $800,000 bonus in January 2022 during the international signing period.
Since then, all he has done is hit. In 194 games in the Tigers system, he has 28 homers, with a .286 batting average and .867 OPS. There was a time when he was considered a below-average catcher, but he continues to develop because of some great work by the Tigers' minor league coaches.
“He wants to be a catcher,” Cappuccilli told me on June 14. “He walks around like a catcher. He carries himself like a catcher.”
And Briceño’s getting better. His receiving has improved and his arm is better than expected.
“It's really been a pleasant surprise,” Cappuccilli said. “You see him getting more and more comfortable. He's exceeded our expectations back there, both with his desire to be back there and his improvement.”
Having that tool in his toolbox, as Hinch likes to say, will only make Briceño more valuable down the road and give the Tigers even more flexibility in years to come.
Stars shining bright for Tigers
Now, consider the All-Star Game. The Tigers are taking four (so far): Javier Báez, Riley Greene, Tarik Skubal and Gleyber Torres. It is just the fourth time the Tigers have had three players elected to start the All-Star Game. (The others: 1984, 1985 and 2007.)
Now, Skubal making the team is not exactly a surprise. He has been nothing short of incredible. But the other three have interesting stories that shed light on different aspects of this organization.
Báez switching from short stop to center and making the All-Star team is a reflection of this team’s identity: complete unselfishness. But it’s also a reflection of how Hinch thinks outside the box, just trying Báez in center.
Greene is an example of how the Tigers coaching staff is playing such a strong role behind the scenes. He went through an early funk – he was hitting .235 on April 29. But nobody freaked out. Hinch never wavered about Greene. The hitting coaches got him on track and he had a scorching June (.360 with a 1.034 OPS).
Now, consider Torres. The Tigers signed him to a one-year deal because they weren’t sure about Spencer Torkelson and shifted Colt Keith to first base. And it proved to be another great move. Torres has been fantastic, hitting .278 with an .810 OPS.
Which brings us to Torkelson. Yes, you can make a case that he has had an All-Star-caliber first half, jacking 20 homers. But the story behind that first half is even more intriguing.
Now remember, there was no guarantee Torkelson was even gonna make this team in spring training. But he changed his swing, fought his way onto the roster, won the starting job and he is part of the reason why the Tigers have a double-digit lead over the Minnesota Twins in the American League Central.
So, that would leave Keith as the odd man out, right? Well, nope.
Keith has played 18 games at first, 24 at second and eight at third. And after a slow start, Keith has hit .299 with a .831 OPS in his last 48 games.
It’s like the Tigers are finding good even when a situation might be tricky – having a logjam at first and second. But it hasn’t happened because of how Hinch has juggled the lineup; Torres getting banged up for a bit opened up even more playing time for Keith to return to second.
Because we all know, more than anything, Hinch loves versatility.
Which brings us to Zach McKinstry. He, too, has had an All-Star-caliber first half. McKinstry has been a Swiss Army knife for the Tigers, playing third, shortstop, second, first, left and right.
Now, it’s important to remember how the Tigers got him. The Tigers traded for him three days before 2023 Opening Day. He had struggled something awful during spring training for the Cubs (.079) and was out of options. So, the Tigers traded right-handed pitcher Carlos Guzman for McKinstry.
But it’s also important to note how McKinstry has grown while playing for the Tigers.
Hinch brought McKinstry along slowly, starting out using him as a platoon player. But now? Hinch has become “President of the McKinstry Fan Club” and can’t take him out of the lineup. McKinstry has given the Tigers incredible flexibility while hitting .285 with a .812 OPS.
It’s a testament not only to how the Tigers have found talent, but how Hinch has nurtured his players, pumping McKinstry with confidence, putting him in a position to succeed.
Loaded for trade deadline
All of this has put the Tigers in a wild position. It doesn’t feel like the Tigers are playing great and you look closer and realize they have won seven of their last 10 (yes, sweeping the struggling Guardians can make everything seem better).
Detroit's 57-34 start through 91 games is the club's best since going 62-29 in 2006, and only the third time the Tigers have won 57 of their first 91 games in the last 55 years. (The other: 1984.) Just as impressive? The Tigers have won 20 of their first 29 series for the first time in the 125-season history of the franchise.
And they have done all of that, while building the best minor league system in baseball.
Even better, as McGonigle, Clark and Briceño move up, there are several other stories lurking under the surface in the minors. Like Troy Melton, a fourth-round pick in 2022. He has climbed to Toledo, striking out 40 with just six walks in 26⅔ innings. Yes, get ready to see him soon, Detroit.
Or even Max Anderson, who was taken in the second round of the 2023 draft out of Nebraska. He is hitting .342 with a .950 OPS in Erie. He has played primarily at second base, but he has gotten a taste at third.
All of that leaves the Tigers in a fascinating situation. When you consider the talent like McGonigle and Anderson, along with Keith in Detroit, and don’t forget about Jace Jung and Hao-Yu Lee in Toledo, and Trei Cruz is hitting .275 with a .856 OPS in Erie – and don’t forget about shortstop Bryce Rainer, who is out for the season with a shoulder injury – you start to see a glut of prospects in the system.
All of this leads me to my bigger point: Now, that the Tigers have a ton of prospects in the minors, it means the Tigers have several options to be buyers at the trade deadline. To give the big-league club a final boost by trading some prospects without decimating the farm system. It's like they are loaded up, ready to make the big-league club better.
This is how it’s supposed to work. This is what a top-notch organization looks like: The front office working in sync with the manager, who is in sync with the minor league system. All of the pieces fitting together.
Here is a team with the best record in baseball, with another wave of talent now in Erie (with the potential to reach Detroit as soon as 2026), and with enough other prospects to add more talent through trades.
This is what we have been missing, lo these many years.
Colt Keith's new hitting approach paying off for Detroit Tigers: 'Swing easier'
- Colt Keith had a breakout game on Monday, July 7, going 3-for-4 with two doubles, a home run, and two RBIs, contributing to the Detroit Tigers' 5-1 win over the Tampa Bay Rays.
- Keith credits his recent success to simplifying his swing, focusing on contact over power, and "being a hitter first."
- Keith and teammate Zach McKinstry, who also homered in the game, trained together in the offseason, focusing on making contact.
Colt Keith is now growing a beard.
It wasn’t necessarily by choice. The Detroit Tigers just finished up a three-game sweep of the Cleveland Guardians on the road, and apparently the razors in the locker room there are “pretty subpar.”
So he abandoned his attempt early on and left it how it was. He didn’t feel like shaving in the morning on Monday, July 7, either — he thought he’d just do it when he got home.
When you go 3-for-4 with two doubles a home run, and two RBIs, the beard stays.
“Now it’s staying until I get out again,” Keith said after Monday's 5-1 win by the Tigers.
Keith will probably "get out" soon, but it’s certainly getting rarer — Monday's game brought his OPS in July up to 1.300, and his OPS on the season up to .779, well above last year's .689.About the only Tiger who had a better Monday night than Keith was Zach McKinstry, who also homered and picked up an outfield assist on a lightning bolt of a throw to third base.
And sure enough, Keith and McKinstry — both having career-best seasons — trained together in the offseason.
“I worked with Colt Keith this offseason and swung probably even less than I have in the past,” McKinstry said.
But they weren't focused on power. Instead, Keith has been about making contact — even if he doesn’t always know what’s going to happen when he makes contact. On his home run Monday, for example, he wasn’t trying to slam it.“I was trying to just be short to the ball,” Keith said. “Lately I’ve been swinging, like, 75% and just trying to be short to the ball, and that’s enabled me to get the barrel more out in front of the plate.”
“I ran out of the box because I don’t trust anything in this park,” Keith said.
He didn’t really need to worry — his homer easily cleared the fence before landing 390 feet from home for a 4-1 Tigers lead. Three pitches, McKinstry crushed a slower Gervase fastball to virtually the exact same spot, 385 feet out.
Simplifying his swing and process has come with benefits for Keith. Less thinking about pulling the ball has led to more actual pulling the ball.
“Kind of like, 'Oh, I want to pull the ball harder, swing harder, less results,’ ” Keith said. “Swing easier. Just try to be a hitter first.”
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- Bloggery committed by chris tower - 2507.09 - 10:10
- Days ago: MOM = 3660 days ago & DAD = 314 days ago
- New note - On 1807.06, I ceased daily transmission of my Hey Mom feature after three years of daily conversations. I post Hey Mom blog entries on special occasions. I post the days since ("Days Ago") count on my blog each day, and now I have a second count for Days since my Dad died on August 28, 2024. I am now in the same time zone as Google! So, when I post at 10:10 a.m. PDT to coincide with the time of Mom's death, I am now actually posting late, so it's really 1:10 p.m. EDT. But I will continue to use the time stamp of 10:10 a.m. to remember the time of her death and sometimes 13:40 EDT for the time of Dad's death. The blog entry numbering in the title has changed to reflect total Sense of Doubt posts since I began the blog on 0705.04, which include Hey Mom posts, Daily Bowie posts, and Sense of Doubt posts. Hey Mom posts will still be numbered sequentially. New Hey Mom posts will use the same format as all the other Hey Mom posts; all other posts will feature this format seen here.
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