 |
| Is Corbin Carroll ready to lead the way for the Arizona Diamondbacks? Chris Coduto/Getty Images |
A Sense of Doubt blog post #2956 - Top Fantasy Baseball Prospects for 2023
Another Baseball share.
Thanks for tuning in.
https://www.espn.com/fantasy/insider/baseball/insider/story/_/id/35759199/fantasy-baseball-rookie-rankings-2023-kiley-mcdaniel-prospects
Kiley McDaniel's top fantasy baseball prospects for 2023
Hope springs eternal when it comes to baseball teams, both in the major leagues as well as with fantasy baseball squads. Some of the biggest importers of hope each season are those "shiny new toys" -- highly touted rookies who have yet to disappoint, bringing tons of promise and optimism to the table.
The list you're about to read is strictly for fantasy purposes and is a spin on my real-world value Top 100 list, which is heavily influenced by scouts, executives and my own scouting looks. I don't play fantasy anymore, but I do help some friends with their teams, and I get the big-picture adjustments from the baselines of my other lists: defense doesn't matter, position matters a little, speed doesn't really matter unless they steal bases, etc. This list will generally be in the order of that list, only after adjusting for those factors.
With that in mind, here's my ranked top 20 of the best fantasy bets for 2023 among prospects and rookies -- and I'll detail below where those two terms diverge. These candidates were culled from my original list of 1,294 players whom I ranked on this year's team lists (split into AL and NL prospects), so there are a few dozen more viable Rookie of the Year (ROY) candidates I could rank. However, I know you are looking more at the top of this list for your drafts than the bottom.
1. Corbin Carroll, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
2. Gunnar Henderson, SS, Baltimore Orioles
I'm flipping my top two here, but they're alone at the 65 FV tier and are close to a coin flip in both real life and fantasy, so they're pretty interchangeable (as well as the screaming favorites for the two ROY awards. Henderson has a good chance to be both SS and 3B eligible with a power-and-patience skill set and some stolen base upside, while Carroll is an electric athlete with 30-plus steals upside but also solid contact and power skills. I'll lean toward the standout SB potential.
3. Masataka Yoshida, OF, Boston Red Sox
4. Kodai Senga, SP, New York Mets
I don't include any professional players from overseas in my prospect list, but both of these players are new to MLB and ROY-eligible, so I will include them here. Yoshida is a polished hitter with average-or-so power (roughly 15-20 homers annually) who will play every day for the Red Sox. His real-world limitations of playing left field and not offering much speed don't matter as much for fantasy. Senga fits in the tradition of NPB starters who can step in and be an SP2/SP3 immediately, but he's also on a contender, which will help his win total.
5. Triston Casas, 1B, Boston Red Sox: Casas might platoon at first base, which would limit his playing time and puts him just behind this clear top four for me. He'll probably only play 1B and DH but has a rare combination of hit, approach and power, with 25-HR upside in an ideal rookie season.
6. Esteury Ruiz, OF, Oakland Athletics: Ruiz is an elite runner who stole 86 bases last year across three levels and has 40-plus SB upside as the likely Opening Day center fielder for the Athletics. He was the headliner of the Sean Murphy trade and, at least on paper, Oakland is the worst team in the American League, so Ruiz will get a lot of opportunities. That said, he might also be limited by a weak offense and his potentially batting ninth.
7. Ezequiel Tovar, SS, Colorado Rockies: Tovar is a "toolsy" young shortstop who was promoted aggressively last season and also looks set to start the season with an everyday spot near the bottom of the Colorado lineup. He has a shot to put up double figures in both homers and stolen bases. However, he also swings a lot, so there's potential for a slow start that could get him optioned to Triple-A. On the other hand, he's talented enough and has Coors Field on his side. He could get ROY consideration if things fall into place.
8. Miguel Vargas, 2B, Los Angeles Dodgers: Vargas is the next multipositional Dodgers prospect who can really hit. He looks likely to start the season in the lineup as the team's regular second baseman but may get time at all four corner spots as well. He's a fringy defender at all five spots and, if he's not hitting, that will limit his opportunities. Still, he's good enough to hit .280 with 15 homers, so I think the Dodgers will be looking for reasons to get his bat in the lineup.
9. Josh Jung, 3B, Texas Rangers: Jung was set to be a strong ROY candidate last year until he ended up missing most of the season due to shoulder surgery. He's back, and the former top-10 overall pick is penciled in as the everyday third baseman, but there's some risk as his plate discipline regressed when he returned late last year. If things click, he could surpass both a .260 average and 20 homers.
10. Oswald Peraza, SS, New York Yankees: Peraza will very likely be the starting shortstop for the Yankees this year, with even better prospect Anthony Volpe lingering behind him and probably starting the season at Triple-A. Peraza is the best defensive shortstop of the many infielders the Yankees have, so he'll have to really fall on his face at the plate to not get a lot of playing time this season. He's a plus runner who has 20-plus SB potential and sneaky power that could manifest in 15 homers -- if he starts for the whole season.
11. Gabriel Moreno, C, Arizona Diamondbacks: Moreno is technically not ROY eligible since he already has 61 days of MLB service and the cutoff is 60, but he is still on my prospect list since he didn't surpass the 135 at-bat limit. I think the point of this list is guidance on young players with limited (or no) MLB time, so I'll include him here. He's a fantastic athlete for a catcher who might start the season in a part-time role, but one I think will rack up 350-plus plate appearances. The headline here is his plus-plus hitting ability (.280 or better average), some steals upside and low double-digit homer upside.
12. Anthony Volpe, SS, New York Yankees: As I mentioned earlier, Volpe looks like he'll start the season at Triple-A while the Yankees sort out their infield depth. It seems likely that someone will get hurt or slump, which would be just enough of an opening for Volpe if he starts hot, which I'd expect. Since he isn't on their 40-man roster yet, the Yankees won't want to call him up until they have to, but he could still hit his way onto the Opening Day roster.
Volpe is only the third-best SS defender in New York's system (behind Peraza and Isiah Kiner-Falefa), so Volpe may also get some looks at second or third base. If it all clicks in 2023 and he plays the whole season in the big leagues, he could hit .265 with 25 homers and double-figure stolen bases -- he's a fringy runner but has good instincts and stole 50 last season. However, that exact outcome in 2023 isn't that likely.
13. Hunter Brown, SP, Houston Astros
14. Grayson Rodriguez, SP, Baltimore Orioles
15. Jordan Walker, OF, St. Louis Cardinals
16. Logan O'Hoppe, C, Los Angeles Angels
17. Spencer Steer, 3B, Cincinnati Reds
18. Ken Waldichuk, SP, Oakland Athletics
19. Andrew Painter, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
20. Garrett Mitchell, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
I'll go rapid fire now in order to briefly cover some of these other candidates at the back end of my top 20.
Both Brown and Rodriguez have plus-stuff and could be SP2/SP3 right away. However both also come with your typical pitcher risk. Waldichuk is a funky lefty who is more of a steady SP3/SP4 type.
Painter and Walker are both ranked down here because they aren't likely to break with the parent team right now. That said, they are both so good that they have ROY upside even if they play only half of the season. They also could still have a blazing-hot March and make their clubs, so continue to monitor them.
O'Hoppe and Steer are likely to be non-platooned everyday players without start upside but should both be solid contributors. Meanwhile, Mitchell has power/speed potential but also could spend time in the minors and might well get platooned if he stays up all year.
Others who could be top-20 worthy by Opening Day
Francisco Alvarez, C, Mets; Jonathan Aranda, 1B, Rays; Brice Turang, SS, Brewers; Royce Lewis, SS, Twins; Gabriel Arias, SS, Guardians; Brett Baty, 3B, Mets; Curtis Mead, 3B, Rays; Oswaldo Cabrera, IF/OF, Yankees; Nolan Jones, IF/OF, Rockies; Alec Burleson, OF, Cardinals; Kerry Carpenter, DH, Tigers; Cade Cavalli, SP, Nationals; Ryne Nelson, SP, Diamondbacks; Shintaro Fujinami, SP, Athletics; Brandon Pfaadt, SP, Diamondbacks
Pfaadt probably won't break with the big team but is a sleeper ROY candidate whom both scouts and analysts love. The team, park and division don't help much.
Alvarez and Baty are the first two (ahead of Mark Vientos and Ronny Mauricio) of the Mets' hitting prospects on the 40-man roster who will either headline a trade or come up after the first injury/slump.
Carpenter, Jones, Aranda, Turang, Arias, Cabrera, and Burleson all have bench or platoon roles right now, but could each potentially grab a full-time spot with a strong spring.
Cavalli, Nelson and Fujinami have mid-rotation upside and are set to start the season in a rotation but have command warts to work through.
Mead has ROY potential, even in a half-season, but isn't a great defender and the Rays have a tendency to platoon their many position-player options.
Lewis is a former No. 1 overall pick and a longtime top-100 prospect, but he has missed tons of time with various injuries. He could return to the big leagues in the second half with a power/speed combo that fits up the middle.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
- Bloggery committed by chris tower - 2303.23 - 10:10
- Days ago = 2820 days ago
- New note - On 1807.06, I ceased daily transmission of my Hey Mom feature after three years of daily conversations. I plan to continue Hey Mom posts at least twice per week but will continue to post the days since ("Days Ago") count on my blog each day. The blog entry numbering in the title has changed to reflect total Sense of Doubt posts since I began the blog on 0705.04, which include Hey Mom posts, Daily Bowie posts, and Sense of Doubt posts. Hey Mom posts will still be numbered sequentially. New Hey Mom posts will use the same format as all the other Hey Mom posts; all other posts will feature this format seen here.
No comments:
Post a Comment